Strong IPO demand, financials, and expansion into markets like South Korea drove momentum in the stock.
- PayPay shares rose 14% on its trading debut and rallied further before easing on Monday.
- Macquarie initiated with an ‘Outperform’ rating, citing 65% QR market share in Japan.
- Macquarie sees PayPay as a beneficiary of Japan’s shift to cashless payments and strong growth in QR-based transactions.
Shares of PayPay (PAYP) are holding most of their IPO premium despite recent selling pressure, with analysts betting on long-term upside from Japan’s digital payments boom.
PayPay’s American depositary receipts (ADR) closed at $18.16 on Thursday’s debut, 14% above the $16 IPO price. The stock jumped on Friday before giving back some gains on Monday, settling at $19.3, keeping it about 20% above its listing level.
Macquarie’s Bullish Call On PayPay
Macquarie initiated coverage on PayPay with an ‘Outperform’ rating and a $22.9 price target, implying an 18% upside from current levels. The brokerage called PayPay a dominant player in Japan’s QR code payments space, with a 65% market share.
The firm added that Japan’s cashless penetration stood at 43% in 2024, and the government aims to raise it to 65% by 2030. The gap leaves “ample room for upside,” Macquarie noted, especially as QR payments remain the fastest-growing segment within the broader payments ecosystem.
Strong IPO Demand
PayPay’s $879.8 million IPO marked the largest U.S. listing by a Japanese company in a decade, and demand was solid heading into the offering. The company sold 31.1 million ADRs, while an affiliate of SoftBank Vision Fund II sold another 23.9 million. Investors, including Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, a unit of Qatar Investment Authority, and an arm of Visa, together committed up to $220 million.
The shares were priced below the marketed range of $17 to $20, but still delivered a strong debut, giving the company a market value of about $12.1 billion.
PayPay Profit Growth And Expansion
Founded in 2018, PayPay has grown into Japan’s leading payments app, with more than 72 million users. The company reported a profit of 103.3 billion yen for the nine months ended December 2025, up about 257% year-on-year, while revenue rose around 26% to 278.5 billion yen.
Meanwhile, PayPay has been looking beyond its home market. It now enables payments at more than 2 million locations in South Korea and is exploring opportunities in the U.S. through a partnership with Visa.
How Did Stocktwits Users React?
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for PayPay was ‘extremely bullish’ amid ‘extremely high’ message volume.
One user called the stock’s recent performance weak, suggesting the earlier pre-market spike to higher levels was driven by low-volume activity and indicating signs of exhaustion in the rally.
Another user expressed confidence in the stock, arguing that underwriting by major U.S. banks reflects thorough due diligence, adding, “I see Payp as a winner! Goldman is in. So, I am in.”
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