Novo Nordisk Heads For Worst Day In 22 Years As New Obesity Drug Underwhelms: Retail Brushes Off ‘Super Silly’ Drop

Novo Nordisk shares plunged 18% Friday afternoon and were headed for their worst intraday drop since April 2002. However, retail investors have seemingly brushed off the latest concerns. 

The sell-off followed results from a phase 3 trial of its experimental obesity drug, CagriSema, which showed an average weight loss of 22.7% at 68 weeks. That fell short of the 25% benchmark the company had hoped for, despite meeting primary endpoints of statistical significance versus placebo.

The news boosted shares of rivals Eli Lilly, Amgen, and Viking Therapeutics, along with their retail sentiment scores on Stocktwits. 

NVO sentiment and message volume Dec 20 as of 2:20 pm ET | source: Stocktwits

Still, retail investors on Stocktwits brushed off Novo’s dramatic drop as an overreaction, with sentiment flipping to ‘extremely bullish’ from ‘bearish’ a day ago. 

One user called the sell-off “super silly,” emphasizing that the trial results remained competitive and pointed to Novo's “massive” pipeline of drugs. 

On the analyst front, Citi and UBS both described Novo’s readout as favorable for Lilly, with Citi labeling it “nearly a best-case scenario” for the American pharma giant, The Fly reported. 

Lilly’s tirzepatide — marketed as Zepbound — already delivers weight-loss results comparable to CagriSema, providing relief to investors concerned about competitive pressure.

UBS further noted that CagriSema’s efficacy now appears aligned with Amgen’s MariTide but with potential disadvantages such as gastrointestinal intolerability and less attractive dosage regimens.

BTIG, meanwhile, reportedly highlighted Viking’s positioning as a standout player with its oral obesity pill candidate, benefiting from its competitive efficacy and tolerability.

Novo’s spokeswoman confirmed that a follow-up trial will begin next year to optimize dosage, and regulatory approval for CagriSema is anticipated by late 2025. 

A BofA analyst acknowledged that the results exceed Novo’s current obesity drug, Wegovy, and could drive a transition ahead of semaglutide’s patent expiration in 2031.

Year-to-date, Novo shares are down over 16%, while Lilly has gained 33%, Viking has soared over 130%, and Amgen has declined 5%.

Despite Friday’s steep drop, Denmark-based Novo remains Europe’s most valuable company, with a staggering $380 billion market cap.

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