The analysts believe a break below could trigger a sharper correction toward 24,800.
The Nifty 50 continued its decline for the 4th consecutive session, closing below 25,100 on Monday. Analysts believe that the real test lies at 25,000, which is a crucial support level. And if the index falls below this, it could trigger a deep correction ahead.
SEBI-registered analyst Mayank Singh Chandel noted that despite intraday volatility and selling pressure, the Nifty index managed to hold the psychological support at 25,000, which is a key level. If Nifty holds above this on Tuesday, we may see a bounce toward 25,200–25,300. But a break below 25,000 will open the doors for further correction toward 24,800, as it aligns with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
Daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has cooled off to 46.66, suggesting a loss of bullish momentum but still above oversold territory, indicating that any bounce will depend on price confirmation near 25,000.
Derivatives data shows the highest call open interest at 25,500, then 25,300 & 25,400, which shows strong overhead supply. The maximum Put open interest is at 25,000, followed by 25,100 & 24,900, indicating that buyers are defending this zone. This suggests 25,000 remains a pivotal make-or-break level. Any move below it might shift control back to the bears.
Chandel identified immediate support at 25,000, 24,900, and 24,800, with resistance at 25,200, 25,300, and 25,500. He remains cautiously bearish unless there is a decisive bounce from 25,000–24,900 levels.
Bharat Sharma of Stockace Financial Services echoed a similar view. He highlighted that Monday’s price action shows Nifty found support at the 25,000 mark, and that this psychological barrier is unlikely to be breached easily on the downside. However, if this level does break, a liquidation phase could trigger a sharper downward move.
For Tuesday’s session, he identified 25,140 as the SR Flip zone, coinciding with the 50 EMA on the 15-minute timeframe as the immediate resistance. If the index moves above this, it could gain to 25,200 and potentially test 25,260–25,300 if the momentum persists. This upward move depends on the strength of the bulls, which have demonstrated the intention to defend 25,000 in the previous session.
On the downside, 25,070 will act as immediate support. If this is breached, then the index could test 25,000 again. However, the probability of it breaking below this level is higher, which could lead to intense selling pressure. Below 25,000, Sharma sees the next important support at 24,900, which is the 50-day EMA.
Sharma concluded that the market could either witness a slow-moving day or see a continued pullback from 25,000 towards the 25,200–25,300 zone, provided the 25,000 level holds.
Analyst Dipak Takodara reiterated that the Nifty index is now trading below its 20-day simple moving average (25,272), which confirms short-term weakness. However, it has managed to hold above its 50-day SMA (24,968), which is a critical support zone in the medium term. As of now, the pullback remains controlled, and the broader trend still stays bullish unless 24,500 is broken decisively, he believes.
Takodara noted that the daily candle formed on Monday is a small-bodied red candle with a long lower wick. This indicates that although bears were active through the session, bulls managed to absorb the selling pressure near the 50-DMA. While this isn't a bullish reversal candle by definition, the lower wick does reflect some buying interest at lower levels, hinting at indecision and a possible pause in the ongoing pullback.
On the downside, he pegged immediate support at 24,968, which coincides with the 50-DMA and was tested on Monday. Below that, the support zone between 24,502 and 24,462 becomes the next critical demand area. On the upside, resistance is seen at 25,116. Beyond that, the 20-DMA at 25,272 and the previously broken range top near 25,330–25,380 will act as stiff hurdles.
Takodara observed that the price action around the 50-DMA over the next 1–2 sessions will set the tone. If Nifty manages to hold this level and reclaim 25,116, it could trigger a technical bounce. However, a breakdown below Monday’s low (25,001) may increase the probability of a drift toward the 24,500 zone.
The short-term bias remains cautiously bearish, though the medium-term structure is still bullish as long as Nifty does not breach the broader support around 24,500–24,460, he concluded.
Pradeep Carpenter noted that the Nifty index closed just above its central pivot range (CPR) pivot at 25,078, indicating a neutral to weak bias heading into the next session. If the index falls below 24,997, it could fall to 24,900; while a rise above 25,076 could lead the index toward ₹25,150. The CPR is narrow, indicating that the market may be poised for a sideways phase or a breakout move, depending on which level is breached.
For the Bank Nifty, the CPR is very tight, showing that volatility is building. A move above 56,760 could take the index to 57,000; and a drop below 56,730 may take it lower to 56,500–56,600.
The market is currently consolidating after a recent rally, and IT sector results, particularly from HCL Technologies, along with macroeconomic data, could act as catalysts for a breakout. Given the tight CPR, a trending move is likely if key levels are broken, Carpenter added.
He advised avoiding trading within the CPR trap and waiting for a clear breakout or breakdown. Bearish confirmation would come if Nifty falls below ₹24,997 or Bank Nifty drops under ₹56,730.
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