Jordi Visser Says One Overlooked Event Could Help Bitcoin Break Out Of Its Slump

Visser linked the pressure to heavy AI borrowing, noting Oracle signalled it won't raise much money before June.

• Jordi Visser said high real yields, about 250 basis points on the 10-year, have been "a major drag on crypto" and gold this year.
• He said the Treasury's Nov. 4 refunding could ease that pressure if it trims long-bond sales, a move Citi also expects.
• He said Bitcoin has tracked semiconductors almost one-for-one and expects a retest of $73,000 to $74,000.

Wall Street veteran Jordi Visser said next week's U.S. Treasury refinancing announcement could ease the pressure on Bitcoin (BTC), gold and artificial intelligence (AI) stocks this year.

Speaking on Anthony Pompliano's podcast on Friday, Visser said high real interest rates have been the main drag on crypto and gold. With inflation expectations around 2.5% and the 10-year yield near 5%, "there's 250 basis points of real 10-year yields," he said. 

After the U.S. Treasury said in August that it would double long-term bond buybacks from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. Bitcoin went up about 21% in just 72 hours. 

Why Visser Sees The Refinancing As Catalyst For Bitcoin

Visser pointed to the Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement scheduled for November 4, which will determine how much debt the government will sell and at which maturities. "This is not getting a ton of press," he said. According to Visser, Treasury could cut sales of long-term bonds and shift borrowing to shorter-term debt. "It's not yield curve control, but it is certainly an admission that they don't want the long end to go higher," he added.

Similarly, strategists at Citi, including head of U.S. rates strategy Jason Williams, reportedly expect the Treasury to cut the size of 20-year and 30-year bond auctions by $3 billion each. 

Visser also tied the issue to heavy borrowing by AI companies, which compete with the Treasury for investors. He singled out Oracle (ORCL), which raised more than $60 billion since last September. At its investor day this week, Oracle signalled it isn't "going to raise much money between now and June," Visser said.

Muted Moves

Visser said Bitcoin's subdued reaction to the Binance (BNB) hack reflected lower volatility, which has "been lower than AI names all year." He said Bitcoin moved largely in step with semiconductor stocks over the past six weeks. Visser expects Bitcoin to retest $73,000 to $74,000, and possibly dip slightly below.

His comments came as Bitcoin’s price was down by 0.1% during the past 24 hours, trading around $77,500. On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment around BTC remained in the ‘bearish’ zone, while chatter around it stayed at ‘normal’ levels over the past day.

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