INTC Stock Sees Price Target Hikes On Q2 Beat, But Analysts Say Key Foundry Catalyst 'Has Not Yet Arrived'

Stifel called the quarter "a large, demand-led beat" but maintained a Hold rating, saying much of Intel's recovery is already reflected in the stock price.

• Analysts broadly praised Intel’s second quarter results but said Intel still needs additional external foundry customers to strengthen its long-term turnaround story.
• Several firms said Intel's biggest missing catalyst remains a major external foundry customer.
• Morgan Stanley raised its target but said conviction around Intel's foundry business remains "low," adding that the company's server market share outlook is "mixed at best."

Intel (INTC) shares rose in early morning trade Friday after a slew of price target hikes from Wall Street following the company's second-quarter earnings beat, though analysts remained divided on the company's longer-term outlook.

According to investor notes cited by TheFly, several firms pointed out that the most important catalyst for Intel's turnaround, a signed external foundry customer, is still not on the balance sheet.

INTC stock gained as much as 2.5% in pre-market trade on Friday, trimming gains following an after-hours rally of over 10%. It was the top trending ticker on Stockwits at the time of writing. 

Retail sentiment around the company improved to ‘bullish’ from ‘neutral’ territory over the past day, while chatter rose to ‘high’ from ‘normal’ levels. Platform data showed a more than 400% jump in message volume in the last 24 hours. 

Intel’s Foundry Busins Remains The Biggest Question

Stifel called the quarter "a large, demand-led beat," noting Intel topped revenue estimates by roughly 12%, beat EPS by roughly double, and exceeded operating margin expectations by about 610 basis points. 

Despite that strength, Stifel lowered its price target to $110 from $120 and maintained a ‘Hold’ rating, stating that the stock's 2026 re-rating "has already priced a meaningful chunk of the early turnaround" and that the key catalyst investors are waiting on, a signed external foundry customer, has "not yet arrived."

Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh also lowered the firm's price target on Intel to $109 from $135 and kept a ‘Neutral’ rating on the shares. He stated while there may be agentic AI server tailwinds for Intel, some margin headwinds and foundry execution risk remain in the longer-term.

Intel's turnaround narrative is closely tied to its foundry business, which recently landed marquee customers including Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA). The division narrowed its operating loss to $2.1 billion from $3.2 billion a year earlier, but the company didn't announce any new customer wins alongside this report, a gap several analysts flagged directly.

Wall Street Raises Intel Price Targets After Q2 Beat

Beyond Stifel, other firms raised price targets but kept cautious or even bearish ratings. Morgan Stanley's Joseph Moore raised his target to $84 from $75 while maintaining an ‘Equal Weight’ rating. He pointed to stronger-than-expected results tied to spending enthusiasm around long-term foundry prospects, though he described his own conviction in Intel's foundry outlook as "low" and called server share prospects "mixed at best."

Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson raised the price target on INTC stock to $98 from $60 and kept a ‘Neutral’ rating on the shares. The firm stated it expects fundamentals to remain positive for the world's largest producer of compute, however, it still struggles to justify Intel's valuation.

Meanwhile, Rosenblatt lifted its target to $80 from $65 while maintaining a ‘Sell’ rating, pointing to rising AI compute demand. JPMorgan's Harlan Sur raised his target to $85 from $45, one of the largest jumps among the group, while keeping an ‘Underweight’ rating, saying Q2 results and Q3 guidance "cleared expectations by wide margins" on the back of cycle times, wafer starts, and record server momentum.

Intel Raises Capital Spending After Strong Quarter

Intel reported a 25% increase in second-quarter (Q2) revenue to $16.1 billion, beating analyst estimates of $14.5 billion, as per Koyfin data. Earnings came in at $0.42 per share versus expectation of $0.22 per share.

The company also stated that it plans to spend $20 billion this year, up from its previous forecast of $18 billion, and could tap the capital markets for funds. 

INTC’s stock has gained more than 170% so far this year, and is up nearly 330% over the past 12 months. 

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