Goldman Slashes Tesla’s Q3 Delivery Forecast — Says Weaker Sales Across Largest Markets May Offset Export Strength

Goldman said Southeast Asia, South America and Australia are showing strength on a year-over-year basis.

• Goldman Sachs cut Tesla’s Q3 delivery forecast to 435,000 vehicles from 490,000 vehicles.
• Citizens analyst Andrew Boone reiterated a ‘Market Perform’ rating on Tesla.
• The NHTSA has reportedly given Tesla until September 30 to respond to its queries on Cybercab certification.

Tesla’s (TSLA) third-quarter deliveries could fall short of expectations as weaker sales across its largest markets are likely to offset strength in its export markets, according to Goldman Sachs.

Goldman Sachs cut its third-quarter (Q3) delivery forecast to 435,000 vehicles from 490,000 while maintaining a ‘Neutral’ rating and $360 price target, according to The Fly. This represents a 0.2% upside from current levels.

The new forecast is below the consensus estimate of 456,000 compiled by S&P Global-owned Visible Alpha, according to Investing.com. Goldman said recent sales data from the U.S., China and Europe are tracking below its previous expectations.

TSLA shares edged 0.8% higher in early trading on Wednesday.

How Did Tesla Do In Q2?

Tesla delivered 480,126 vehicles in the second quarter (Q2), including 467,762 Model 3 and Model Y vehicles, rebounding sharply from 358,023 deliveries in the first quarter (Q1). Goldman’s new Q3 forecast would represent a roughly 9% sequential decline.

In China, Tesla reportedly delivered 126,157 vehicles in Q2, down about 2% year over year but up nearly 12% from Q1. Meanwhile, Tesla’s European business showed a stronger recovery during the quarter, with registrations rising sharply across several major markets, including France and Denmark.

Goldman noted that Southeast Asia, South America and Australia, supplied largely through Tesla’s exports from China, are showing year-over-year strength and should partly offset weakness elsewhere.

Cybercab Faces Scrutiny

Meanwhile, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has reportedly ordered Tesla to answer questions by September 30 about how it certified its Cybercab robotaxi, including whether it used temporary human controls as part of the certification process.

Separately, Citizens analyst Andrew Boone reiterated a ‘Market Perform’ rating on Tesla, saying the autonomous-driving industry remains skeptical of the company’s camera-only approach as safety concerns and technical challenges remain significant, according to Investing.com.

Retail’s Take On TSLA

Retail sentiment surrounding TSLA on Stocktwits remained ‘extremely bearish’ over the past 24 hours.

One bearish user pointed to Tesla’s high price-to-sales ratio.

View this Stocktwits post

TSLA is down more than 18% so far in 2026, easily the worst-performing stock among the so-called Magnificent 7.

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