Gold Inches Higher As Middle East Tensions Boil, But Fed Caution Limits Upside

Spot gold briefly climbed above $5,000 an ounce before retreating, while spot silver gained 1.5% to $78.3 an ounce.

• Gold to remain rangebound between $4,860 and $5,140 an ounce, according to Ole Hansen
• Tensions in the Middle East also drove crude prices higher, with Brent crude futures climbing 1.3%
• Federal Reserve officials signaled a potential pause on further rate cuts unless inflation continues to cool later this year.

Gold prices inched higher Thursday as escalating U.S.-Iran tensions spurred safe-haven demand, though a firmer dollar capped momentum following cautious signals from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy minutes.

Spot gold (XAU/USD) briefly climbed above $5,000 an ounce before retreating and was up 0.3% at $4,988 an ounce at the time of writing. Gold futures for April 2026 deliveries were trading at $5,010 per ounce.

Meanwhile, spot silver (XAG/USD) saw a sharper rise, gaining 1.5% to around $78.3 an ounce. Contracts expiring in April 2026 were up 1% at $78.69 per ounce.

Middle-East Risks Escalate

Tensions in the Middle East are escalating after Iran reportedly issued a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) on Wednesday warning pilots of potential hazards during missile tests, days after temporarily shutting the Strait of Hormuz for live-fire drills. At the same time, the USS Abraham Lincoln and nearly 80 aircraft were stationed about 700 kilometers off Iran’s coast, while the USS Gerald Ford carrier group moves toward the region. Tehran is also expected to hold joint naval exercises with Russia later this week.

The tensions also drove oil prices higher on Thursday, with Brent Crude futures for April 2026 deliveries climbing 1.3% to $71.3 per barrel. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, with a similar expiry, was up around 1.5% at $66 a barrel.

Fed Minutes, Dollar’s Strength Caps Gold’s Upside

Despite geopolitical tailwinds, bullion’s rally stalled after minutes from the January meeting of the Federal Reserve showed policymakers were divided on the path forward for rate cuts.

The minutes signal that any additional rate cuts should be put on hold for now and may resume later this year only if inflation continues to ease.

“In considering the outlook for monetary policy, several participants commented that further downward adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate if inflation were to decline in line with their expectations,” according to FOMC minutes released on Wednesday.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the U.S. dollar against six major currencies, was up 0.1%, while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.094%.

Analysts Expect Gold To Remain Rangebound

Veteran commodities expert and Head of Commodity Strategy for Saxo Bank, Ole Hansen, expects gold to remain between $4,860 and $5,140 an ounce, noting that while prices briefly climbed back above $5,000 on rising Middle East tensions, gains stalled as a stronger dollar and higher bond yields followed cautious signals from the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes.

Jamie Dutta of Nemo.money told Reuters on Thursday that “Geopolitical concerns are front and centre” of gold’s price action, with reports suggesting any potential U.S. military action against Iran could last for weeks.

Miners Trade Mixed In Pre-Market

Shares of gold miners traded mixed in pre-market with Newmont Corp. (NEM) down 0.2% while Barrick Gold (B) inched 0.1% higher.

Silver miner stocks gained, with Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) up over 3% and Hecla Mining (HL) climbing 1.5%

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.<