Calacanis previously disclosed small investments in Lucid, Rivian, WeRide and Pony.ai, predicting takeovers within two years.

  • Jason Calacanis predicted Waymo will buy Lucid or Rivian amid scrutiny of its Chinese-made robotaxi orders.
  • He called the Chinese-car optics “really bad,” citing tariffs, costs and national-security concerns.
  • U.S. vehicle restrictions begin phasing in with model year 2027, with certain hardware restrictions following in 2030.

Early Uber investor Jason Calacanis predicted that Alphabet’s Waymo will buy Lucid Group (LCID) or Rivian Automotive (RIVN), saying that its reliance on Chinese-made vehicles creates cost and reputational challenges as it expands its robotaxi fleet.

Calacanis Sees A Buyout To Waymo’s China Problem

“They will buy Lucid or Rivian,” Calacanis said on X, while addressing Waymo’s vehicle sourcing and competition with Tesla. The development came after a New York Post report said that Waymo had ordered thousands of Chinese-made Zeekr vehicles to expand its U.S. fleet, drawing national-security concerns on Capitol Hill. Zeekr is part of China’s Geely group. 

Calacanis said that tariffs and political concerns make the arrangement difficult to sustain. “Technically not illegal today, Waymo just needs to pay 100%+ tariff on these cars… but obviously something they need to deprecate because it’s not cost effective and the optics are really bad,” he said.

“Even if the self-driving tech is from America, there will be reasonable concerns about communist rivals deploying AVs in America,” he added.

His acquisition prediction came after AI researcher Joscha Bach said that Waymo’s self-driving tech is fitted in the U.S. and added that the company lacks a domestic vehicle platform competitive with Tesla on cost.

Waymo has said its Ojai vehicle uses its sixth-generation Waymo Driver. The company is scaling vehicle integration at its Mesa, Arizona, factory toward capacity of tens of thousands of vehicles annually. 

U.S. vehicle rules restrict certain Chinese software and sales by Chinese-controlled vehicle manufacturers beginning with model year 2027. Restrictions on certain Chinese connectivity hardware begin with model year 2030, with authorization mechanisms available for otherwise prohibited transactions. 

Calacanis Bets On Takeovers And 2x Return

Calacanis’s prediction comes after his disclosure from last month that he bought small positions in Lucid, Rivian and autonomous-driving companies WeRide (WRD) and Pony.ai (PONY). “Consolidation is coming to the autonomous space based on the massive progress that Tesla, Waymo, and Uber are making,” he said at the time.

“I believe these four companies are going to be bought in the next 24 months and I expect, as a group, that I will 2x my investment in under two years.” He also called the investments “tiny bets” with a one-to-four-year horizon. 

Waymo Targets 20,000 Vehicles By End Of 2027

The prediction comes as Waymo apparently prepares for a huge expansion. The company wants to increase its fleet from about 4,000 vehicles to 8,000 by the end of 2026 and 20,000 by the end of 2027, Semafor reported, citing people familiar with the matter. 

Waymo closed its first debt financing, a $5 billion term loan, earlier this month after a $16 billion equity raise this year. The company said that the funds would support U.S. and international expansion after it launched service in its 15th U.S. city last month. 

Lucid And Rivian Pursue Robotaxi Scale Through Uber

Uber has committed to buying at least 35,000 Lucid vehicles, including Gravity SUVs and future Midsize models, for a robotaxi service being developed with Nuro. It also pledged another $200 million in April, bringing its total investment commitments in Lucid to $500 million.

Lucid has a separate opportunity in Europe. Bolt said last month that it aims to put at least 25,000 autonomous vehicles based on Lucid’s upcoming Midsize platform into service.

Rivian’s Uber deal starts with 10,000 autonomous R2 SUVs, with rides expected to begin in San Francisco and Miami in 2028. The agreement includes an option for up to 40,000 more vehicles beginning in 2030. Uber also plans to invest up to $1.25 billion in Rivian through 2031, provided the automaker meets certain autonomy milestones.

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