July’s track record says Bitcoin either tees up Q3 for a face-melting rally or hands out clearance sales you’ll hate yourself for missing.
The following is a breakdown of how Bitcoin (BTC) has historically performed in the month of July, Q3 and the second half of a year.
Bitcoin In July
Historical Averages
- Avg increase when green: 17.5%
- Avg decrease when red: -8.5%
- Overall July change: 8%
- Nine green out of fourteen (64%). Upside hits twice as hard as the downside, but the downside still talks trash.
- Ninth-best month out of twelve.
BTC In Q3 - Heads or Tails Quarter
- Overall average: 6.5%
- Avg gain when green: 36.5%
- Avg loss when red: -23.5%
- Win rate: 50 % (7 green, 7 red).
- Best Q3: 2012 (+85.5%) - Europe panicked, Bitcoin didn’t.
- Worst Q3: 2011 (-68%) - first crypto crash course.
Fun bit: July’s color called Q3’s color 12 out of 14 times. That’s a pretty damn good signal.
BTC In The Second Half
- Overall average: 108.5%
- Avg gain when green: 192%
- Avg loss when red: -42.5%
- Win rate: 9 green out of 14 (64%).
- Best H2: 2013 (+726.5%) - China and CNBC lost their minds.
- Worst H2: 2011 (-70.5%) - hopelessness after the first real bubble.
Stuff You Didn’t Know
July has never gone red two years in a row. History leans bullish after a bloody one.
When June dumps 10% + (2011, 2022) July’s average rebound is 48%. Traders love a clearance sale.
July’s upside punch is roughly double its downside slap. Helmet recommended; payoff’s worth the whiplash.
A green July matched a green H2 10 of 14 times - ignore that signal at your own risk.
Practical Takeaways
Watch the monthly close. July’s vibe sets Q3’s mood two-thirds of the time.
Red July? History says look for discounts - autumn rallies hit triple digits more often than not.
Green July? Ride it, trail stops - November usually throws the real party.
Liquidity dies in mid-August. July is your last active swing window before traders hit the beach.
Bitcoin’s historical data range for this analysis, August 2010 - June, 2025.<
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