ASTS Vs. RKLB: Which Space Stock Has More Upside Ahead Of Earnings?

Retail sentiment toward both stocks improved to ‘bullish,’ but RKLB leads in watcher growth and share-price performance.

• ASTS and RKLB report earnings Monday in a closely watched space-stock showdown.
• ASTS launched three BlueBird satellites and expanded integration testing across eight European countries.
• RKLB completed its 92nd Electron mission and enters earnings with $663 million in recent Space Force awards.

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) and Rocket Lab (RKLB) report earnings on Monday, setting the stage for a closely-watched showdown between two of the space sector’s most popular retail stocks.

RKLB has narrowly outperformed ASTS so far this week, gaining 17% compared with a 15% advance for ASTS. 

ASTS And RKLB Face Earnings Test 

Analysts tracked by Koyfin expect AST SpaceMobile’s quarterly revenue to surge 133% from the previous quarter to $34.4 million, while its adjusted loss is projected to narrow to $0.23 per share from $0.66. However, its loss before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization is forecast to widen to $72.83 million.

Meanwhile, Rocket Lab enters Monday’s results with a substantially larger revenue base. Its quarterly sales are expected to grow 15% from a quarter ago to $230.94 million, although its adjusted loss is projected to widen to $0.05 per share from $0.02. Its EBITDA loss is also forecast to nearly double to $22.12 million.

Wall Street’s price targets favor Rocket Lab. AST SpaceMobile’s average 12-month target of $80.48 implies a 19% upside from current levels. ASTS carries a ‘Buy’ consensus among 13 analysts, although seven recommend holding the stock and two have bearish ratings. Comparatively, Rocket Lab’s average target of $111.31 represents a 47% upside from the stock’s last close. RKLB holds a ‘Strong Buy’ consensus among 18 analysts, including 14 positive ratings and four ‘Hold’ recommendations, with no sell ratings. 

ASTS Expands BlueBird Constellation

AST SpaceMobile launched BlueBird satellites 11, 12 and 13 from Cape Canaveral on Wednesday. Carrying the largest communications arrays deployed in low Earth orbit, the satellites can deliver speeds approaching 200 Mbps, which is nearly double the company’s first-gen peak.

BlueBirds 14 through 16 are being prepared for the next mission, while production is advancing through satellite 42. CEO Abel Avellan said the company is scaling its network ahead of planned beta services later this year.

ASTS also expanded integration testing across eight European countries with Vodafone, Orange, Telefónica, Deutsche Telekom and Vodafone Ukraine. Its carrier-first model lets operators extend coverage through satellites while retaining customer relationships. The company has agreements with nearly 60 operators covering over three billion subscribers and more than $1.2 billion in contracted commercial revenue commitments.

RKLB Adds Major Space Force Awards 

Rocket Lab completed its 92nd Electron mission on Thursday, deploying an Earth-imaging satellite for Japan’s iQPS after the original July 1 attempt was automatically aborted moments before liftoff.

The successful return marked Rocket Lab’s 13th Electron launch of 2026 and its eighth deployment for iQPS, all completed with 100% mission success. Another 10 dedicated launches are booked before 2030, bringing iQPS’ total contracted missions to 18.

Rocket Lab also enters earnings with a $397 million Space Force award to build, launch and operate satellites that track airborne threats. This followed a record $266 million contract for 12 suborbital launches, with options for six more.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About ASTS And RKLB?

Retail interest strengthened in both space stocks on Stocktwits, with sentiment toward ASTS and RKLB improving to ‘bullish’ from ‘neutral’ a week earlier. ASTS drew ‘high’ message volume, while RKLB saw ‘normal’ chatter. 

However, RKLB recorded the stronger growth in followers, with its watcher base rising 16% over the past three months and 56% over the past year, compared with increases of 12% and 47% for ASTS.

RKLB has outpaced ASTS over both the past year and 2026, gaining 72% and 8%. ASTS has climbed 30% over 12 months but slipped 7% year-to-date. 

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