T-Mobile called satellite service a complement to cellular networks and said it could become “table stakes.”
- Satellite traffic remains tiny, accounting for just 0.0003% of T-Mobile’s network usage.
- T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon’s May satellite JV could support a multi-provider market, potentially benefiting AST.
- Nokia targets AI-RAN pilots by end-2026, commercial availability in 2027 and over 100% spectral-efficiency gains by 2028.
AST SpaceMobile’s (ASTS) brutal monthly selloff is testing investor conviction, even as two telecom giants offer fresh evidence that satellite connectivity is becoming a core part of the mobile industry’s future.
ASTS stock is down 33% so far this month, putting shares on pace to mark their worst monthly run in over two years.
Recent earnings commentary from T-Mobile and Nokia highlighted two parts of AST’s long-term thesis: satellite coverage is becoming a standard extension of cellular service, while telecom networks are growing more open and software-driven.
T-Mobile Calls Satellite Connectivity ‘Table Stakes’
T-Mobile CEO Srini Gopalan said that direct-to-cell remains a complement to terrestrial networks, not a replacement. Even during T-Mobile’s busiest summer months, satellites accounted for just 0.0003% of total network usage. “It’s a really small percentage of the usage on our network,” Gopalan said. Yet, he said that satellites will become essential over time.
“For us, it’s clear that with time, this is no longer going to be a differentiation,” he said. “It’s going to be table stakes as a complementary service to have satellite along with your cellular service.” This pushes AST’s bull case of using BlueBird satellites to connect directly to ordinary smartphones where terrestrial coverage is unavailable.
Gopalan also discussed the direct-to-device venture announced by T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon in May. The carrier-led platform will pool spectrum and source satellite capacity, with the goal of making service agnostic to both provider and device. “That’s what drove the JV,” Gopalan said, adding that carriers could still strike separate deals, though T-Mobile expects most capacity to come through the venture.
T-Mobile’s current direct-to-cell service is still provided through SpaceX’s Starlink, and the carrier has not announced a partnership with AST. However, the JV’s flexible structure suggests that carriers may ultimately use multiple satellite providers, creating a potential opening for AST through its existing relationships with AT&T and Verizon.
Nokia Targets 100% Spectrum Efficiency Gain
Nokia has the more direct AST connection. Under a five-year agreement announced in 2022, it supplies AirScale Single RAN equipment for AST’s space-based network. AST’s gateways connect with Nokia eNodeBs and carrier cores through standard 3GPP protocols, allowing its satellites to function as an extension of existing mobile infrastructure across 4G, 5G and, eventually, 6G. The interoperability is central to AST’s pitch: satellites that operate like cell towers in space without requiring specialized phones or antennas.
Nokia CEO Justin Hotard said the company’s AI-RAN platform marks “a fundamental shift from a hardware-defined radio network to software-defined platforms.” “This fundamentally changes the economics of radio networks,” he said.
Nokia expects pilot deployments by the end of 2026, commercial availability in 2027 and more than 100% spectral-efficiency gains by 2028. The platform is also open, programmable and O-RAN compliant, with a software upgrade path from 5G to 6G. “A hardware deployment with 100% spectral efficiency improvement, I think the math there speaks for itself,” Hotard said.
How Do Retail Traders Feel About ASTS?
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for ASTS slipped to ‘bearish’ from ‘neutral’ levels a day ago amid an 18% rise in 24-hour message volume.
One user said, “$ASTS This stock is an unbelievable bargain at these prices. Just need some of these lingering catalysts to kick in at some point.”
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Another user said, “$ASTS We haven't had two green days in a row since June. RSI is over sold and one of the most shorted stocks on the market... This is starting to set up for a squeeze.”
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ASTS stock has climbed 0.4% over the past year.
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