Lookonchain called Polymarket's profit taking surrounding Nicolás Maduro's arrest insider trading.
- Lookonchain identified three new Polymarket wallets making large "Yes" bets on contracts related to a U.S. airstrike on Venezuela. These bets were placed shortly before reports of Nicolás Maduro's arrest.
- The wallets reportedly netted about $630K combined, as per on-chain analytics firm Lookonchain.
- The timing and specificity of the bets raised suspicions of insider trading.
Three Polymarket wallets earned roughly $630,000 on Saturday by betting on Nicolás Maduro’s removal just before his arrest, as per Lookonchain.
The blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain pointed out on X that three wallets were created and funded days before placing large “Yes” bets on Polymarket contracts tied to the US airstrike on Venezuela. The bets were placed just hours before reports emerged that the Venezuelan president had been arrested.
The arrest followed a U.S. military operation in Venezuela, though U.S. authorities have not publicly disclosed specific charges related to Maduro’s detention.
Polymarket Wallets Flagged For Suspicious Timing
Lookonchain’s data showed that one wallet invested roughly $34,000 and earned about $409,900, while a second wallet invested around $5,800 and made approximately $75,000. A third wallet invested about $25,000 and profited roughly $145,600, bringing the combined gains to around $630,000.
Screenshots shared by the analytics firm show the wallets placing concentrated bets across multiple Polymarket contracts related to Maduro’s removal from office and related geopolitical outcomes. Lookonchain described the activity as indicative of insider trading, citing the timing, narrow focus, and lack of prior activity.
Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction platform where users trade contracts tied to real-world events, with markets settled in the U.S. dollar-pegged stablecoin USDC (USDC). On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around USDC was in ‘bullish’ territory, accompanied by ‘normal’ levels of chatter over the past day.
US Strike Follows Escalation In Venezuela
The bets coincided with a rapid escalation in U.S.-Venezuela tensions. Former U.S. President Donald Trump said on social media that the United States had carried out a “large-scale strike” against Venezuela and that President Nicolás Maduro and his wife had been captured and flown out of the country in an operation involving U.S. law enforcement.
Trump said additional details would be provided at a news conference at Mar-a-Lago. The developments were widely reported by international media and closely tracked across prediction markets, including Polymarket.
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