Will our first contact with aliens be a final cry for help? Explore the Eschatian Hypothesis, a theory that we may first detect a dying civilization's last signals.
For many years, movies and television have influenced how we think about meeting aliens. We are usually shown one of two possibilities: a scary invasion or a friendly species arriving to share advanced knowledge. However, according to one scientist, the real situation might be quite different, and possibly much more disturbing.
As astronomers keep looking for signs of life in the universe, Dr David Kipping from Columbia University has introduced a new idea about what our first contact with aliens might be like. His theory, called the Eschatian Hypothesis, suggests that the first alien civilization we discover might be in the final stages of collapse.
Dying Stars Shine the Brightest
This idea is based on a simple observation from astronomy. Many things in space shine brightest just before they disappear. For instance, dying stars grow into huge, glowing objects near the end of their lives. Some even explode as supernovae, creating powerful bursts of light before fading away forever. Although these events are rare, they are easy to spot because they are so bright.
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Dr Kipping believes that alien civilizations might behave similarly. Most advanced societies might exist quietly for a long time, using energy efficiently and leaving little trace. However, a civilization in trouble, one that is collapsing or losing control, could suddenly become very noticeable, releasing a lot of energy that would be easier to detect from Earth.
What First Alien Contact Will Be Like?
In a YouTube video, Dr Kipping explains that Hollywood has made us expect dramatic or heroic alien encounters. Instead, he suggests that our first contact may be with a civilization in its “death throes,” struggling as it approaches the end.
To support his idea, he points to how we observe stars. Only about one percent of stars in the universe are in a giant, dying phase, and this phase lasts for less than ten percent of a star’s lifetime. Nevertheless, when we look up at the night sky, around a third of the stars we see are these dying giants. This is simply because they are much brighter than regular stars.
The same applies to supernovae. A galaxy like the Milky Way experiences one roughly every 50 years. Still, astronomers find thousands each year because their brightness allows them to be seen over vast distances.
Sending Signals for Help
Dr Kipping argues that alien life should follow a similar pattern. We are most likely to notice civilizations that stand out, not those that are quietly going about their business. As he puts it, our first alien contact might be like noticing a loud, disruptive party guest, most people in the room are calm and unremarkable, but the noisy one draws all the attention.
However, what makes a civilization loud is concerning. As societies grow, they typically become more efficient, using less energy and wasting less. A stable, healthy civilization should not be leaking large amounts of heat or radiation into space. Large energy leaks may instead signal chaos, imbalance, or collapse.
For example, a nuclear war would release enormous amounts of heat and radiation, potentially making a planet visible in ways that powerful telescopes could detect. Rapid, human-driven climate change has also been suggested as a possible sign of intelligent life. In extreme cases, a failing civilization might even send desperate signals into space, hoping someone, somewhere, is listening.
Detecting Alien Life
Dr Kipping has suggested that the mysterious “Wow! Signal” detected in 1977 could have been such a final cry. Rather than waiting patiently for clear, intelligent messages, Dr Kipping believes scientists should regularly scan the entire sky. Sudden flashes, strange signals, or rapid unexplained changes could all be signs of a civilization in crisis. While this may not be a comforting idea, it could offer our best chance of discovering that we are not alone in the universe.
