Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Will BJP hit hat-trick with Modi effect?

(Prime Minister Narendra Modi, along with his party Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition, is aspiring for a third consecutive term in Indian governance, amidst efforts by a coalition of opposition parties to bolster the  Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance
(I.N.D.I.A)bloc alliance. The NDA is gearing up for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections with the ambitious target of securing 400 seats. Meanwhile, the INDIA bloc is entering the electoral arena buoyed by recent developments, hoping to instill confidence among voters.

2019 Results :

When the Narendra Modi government returned to power with a landslide victory in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP-led NDA alliance won 353 of the 542 seats. BJP alone won 303 seats. In 2014, BJP had won 282 seats. The BJP won the majority to rule alone in the last Lok Sabha elections. BJP got 37.36 percent of the total votes cast.

In 2019, the BJP witnessed a notable increase from its 31.34 percent vote share in the 2014 elections, securing a higher percentage of votes. Moreover, the NDA coalition as a whole garnered 45 percent of the votes in the 2019 elections, compared to 38 percent in 2014.

The country saw a significant decline for the Congress party, which historically held power in democratic India for an extended period, as they were reduced to merely 52 seats in the last election. The Congress-led UPA alliance secured a total of 91 seats, with Congress alone managing to capture only 19.49 percent of the votes. The "Modi effect" is often cited as one of the contributing factors leading to the BJP's favorable outcome in the 2019 elections.

The 2024 Scenario for the BJP:

This time around, the BJP is contesting 370 seats independently, while the NDA Front is eyeing 400 seats collectively. Some believe that the initial advantage the BJP enjoyed at the onset of the election campaign has diminished. However, despite facing criticism, particularly regarding the arrest of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, the BJP is moving forward with its election campaigns. The impact of issues such as Kejriwal's arrest and the controversy surrounding electoral bonds on the election results remains to be seen.
 

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