A Lancet study warns global aid cuts could cause 22.6M deaths by 2030. Indian health experts counter this, stating that while some programs may need restructuring, India's health will not be affected due to its low dependency on foreign aid.
A recent Lancet Global Health study warning that sharp reductions in global development assistance could reverse health gains and lead to millions of additional deaths worldwide has triggered discussion among Indian health experts, who maintain that while India may need to restructure some programmes, the overall health of its citizens will not be adversely affected.
The study, conducted by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) with support from The Rockefeller Foundation, estimates that cuts in official development assistance (ODA) could result in 22.6 million additional deaths by 2030 across 93 countries, including India and 20 more in Asia.
The analysis found that global aid between 2002 and 2021 helped reduce child mortality by 39 per cent, HIV/AIDS deaths by 70 per cent, and deaths from malaria and nutritional deficiencies by 56 per cent.
Indian Experts: Nation's Health Will Not Be Adversely Affected
Explaining the implications for India, Dr Rajeev Jayadevan, former President of IMA Cochin and convener of its Research Cell, said, "The study is about declining foreign aid to underdeveloped nations or developing countries. The study says that if wealthy foreign countries cut their funding specifically for healthcare purposes to poorer countries, these poorer countries will see a rise in deaths. So that is essentially what the study says. Now, the study is just a projection. It is not a randomised study or anything like that. So from India's perspective, India's position is quite different from several other countries that are beneficiaries of foreign aid. For example, there are sub-Saharan nations and other smaller nations that have multiple local geopolitical conflicts, war, starvation, epidemics, sanitation issues, poverty and so on. So such places are heavily dependent on foreign aid."
Dr Rajeev further stated that a reduction in foreign funding will necessitate restructuring, but this doesn't mean that particular programs will collapse. "India's position is very different. India's healthcare spending per year is about 120 billion US dollars a year. Every year, foreign aid is less than 1% of this. So it's just a drop in the ocean from India's perspective. But it is true that these foreign aids are currently being allocated to specific verticals for it, for instance, AIDS Control, tuberculosis programs and so on. But a reduction in foreign aid is not going to mean that our AIDS Control Program, or TB control program, will collapse. Yes, there will be some restructuring required," he said.
Dr Rajeev said that India will be able to replenish that or replace that with funds from other areas, because it's just less than 1% whereas for a country that is heavily dependent on foreign aid, for vaccination programs, for sanitation issues, infrastructure building, women empowerment, women education and maternal and child health, now countries that are heavily dependent, yes, they will definitely feel an impact, and the decline in foreign aid is partly driven by the US strategy.
"Over the last couple of years, we know that they have exited the World Health Organization, the WHO, and they have reprioritised their own needs, they have felt that the funds are better used for the welfare of their own citizens," he said.
"The world is changing, and from India's perspective, we are in fact suppliers to the world. We are not dependent on anyone. We, in fact, supply stuff, medicines for the world. For example, in the covid pandemic, India gave around 300 million vaccine doses made in India to over 100 countries worldwide, and many of them were provided free of cost. So it is true that if a drastic drop in foreign aid occurs, yes, a few programs will need some restructuring, but it will not impact the health of our citizens," he said. He explained how India has helped other countries with the help of the Vaccine Maitri programme during Covid crises.
According to Dr Vinay Aggarwal, former National President, Indian Medical Association (IMA) and Chairman, Pushpanjali Healthcare India, is a self-reliant health power. "The Lancet study is an important global warning, but India today is far better insulated from aid volatility than many other nations. Over the past decade, the country has steadily expanded domestic health financing, strengthened flagship programmes, and built one of the world's largest public health delivery systems. While global cooperation remains vital, India's growing self-reliance ensures that critical health gains will not be easily reversed," he said.
Lancet Study's Global Warning
The Lancet Global Health published a new peer-reviewed study today by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), which warns that a precipitous drop in global aid could lead to 22.6 million additional deaths by 2030 across 93 low- and middle- income countries, including 5.4 million children under the age of five.
With support from The Rockefeller Foundation in association with its public charity RF Catalytic Capital, the analysis demonstrates that Sub-Saharan Africa, which accounts for 38 of the 93 countries analyzed, is particularly at risk, and with 21 of the countries in Asia, 12 in Latin America, 12 in the Middle East and North Africa, and 10 in Europe, including Ukraine, severe cuts to official development assistance (ODA) could be felt globally.
ISGlobal's research also reveals that over the course of 2002-2021, ODA helped reduce child mortality by 39 per cent; prevent HIV/AIDS deaths by 70 per cent, with a 56 per cent reduction in deaths from both malaria and nutritional deficiencies; and increased additional global health outcomes in these 93 countries, which are home to 75 per cent of the world's population.
"These findings are a warning of the profound moral cost of the zero-sum approach many political leaders are taking--and they are an urgent call to action to all of us to prevent this human suffering," said Dr Rajiv J Shah, President of The Rockefeller Foundation, in a statement on the human cost of foreign aid cuts. "The question before humanity today is whether we will accept a global retreat from commitments to feed the hungry, cure the sick, and lift up the most vulnerable define the future or whether we will come together to build new models of cooperation worthy of the tens of millions of people who could lose their lives if we do not," Dr Rajiv J. Shah added.
"Our analyses show that development assistance is among the most effective global health interventions available. Over the past two decades, it has saved an extraordinary number of lives and strengthened fragile welfare states and healthcare systems. Withdrawing this support now would not only reverse hard-won progress but would translate directly into millions of preventable adult and child deaths in the coming years. Budget decisions made today in donor countries will have irreversible consequences for millions of people for years to come," said Davide Rasella, Coordinator of the study, ICREA Research Professor at ISGlobal and at the Brazilian Institute of Collective Health.
The study reveals that, as the world's largest donors and other countries continue to slash billions in assistance, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) projects that ODA could decline by 10%-18% from 2024 to 2025.
"In order to assess the realised impact of ODA in these countries and project what may happen if current aid cuts continue or worsen, ISGlobal, with funding from The Rockefeller Foundation in association with its RF Catalytic Capital, examined 20 years of development data between 2002 and 2021 in 93 countries that are home to 6.3 billion people," reads the study.
"Asia's scale means that when health systems fail, the human cost is immense, and in 21 countries across the region, decades of development gains are now at risk of being reversed," said Deepali Khanna, Senior Vice President and Head of Asia, The Rockefeller Foundation. "Without sustained and smarter development assistance, hard-won progress against disease can disappear, health systems can weaken, and preventable loss of life can follow. These outcomes are not inevitable, but avoiding them requires country-led financing and resilient, self-reliant systems that can protect the most vulnerable and save lives," she said.
Countries Analysed in the Study
The countries analysed in this study comprise 21 Asian countries: Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, Thailand, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam. 38 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa: Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. 12 countries in the Middle East and North Africa: Algeria, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Sudan, Tunisia, and Turkiye. 12 countries in Latin America: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Paraguay, and Peru. 10 European countries: Albania, Armenia, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, North Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Serbia, and Ukraine. (ANI)
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