Karnataka’s COVID-19 outbreak may peak in April 2021: IISc Study
Scientists who have been conducting a predictive analysis of the COVID-19 outbreak have cautioned that Karnataka’s coronavirus outbreak may peak in April 2021 with close to 25.7 lakh cases in the first week. The report also suggests that the state may record 10 lakh new COVID-19 cases by November this year.
FollowBengaluru: While many reports suggested that the COVID-19 outbreak may go up in Karnataka in the month of October and November, a new study has suggested that the outbreak may peak only in April next year.
Scientists of Indian Institute of Science (IISc) who have been conducting a predictive analysis of the COVID-19 outbreak have cautioned that Karnataka’s coronavirus outbreak may peak in April 2021.
Based on the report Karnataka’s coronavirus outbreak may peak in April 2021 with close to 25.7 lakh cases in the first week.
The study also says that in the first week of April 2021 the state may record close to 25,000 deaths due to COVID-19.
Meanwhile, the state will reportedly record 10 lakh new cases in November this year. Based on the study, 10.4 lakh people may be infected by the virus by November 5. 11,620 people may die due to COVID-19 that month.
Also read: Karnataka deputy CM Govind M Karjol tests positive for COVID-19
Associate professor Dr Sashikumar Ganesan, chair of the Department of Computational and Data Sciences, Indian Institute of Science (IISc) who helped develop the Partial Differential-Equation (PDE)-based model, has predicted 5 different possible models for the outbreak.
Possibility 1: The actual number of infected people may be 10 times higher than the current number. Because of this the outbreak may peak in April 2021 with close to 25.7 lakh cases recorded on April 4, 2021.
Possibility 2: If a vaccine is discovered by January 1, 2021 then the state may record 22.9 lakh cases by April 4 and 22.38 lakh patients would have recovered from the virus.
Possibility 3: If only 10% of those actually infected are diagnosed and if a vaccine is discovered by April 1, then 25.7 lakh people may get infected by the virus, 24.6 lakh people may recover and 24,960 may die due to COVID-19.
Possibility 4: If only 5% of the total number of actual infections were detected, then 13.7 lakh people could be infected by April 4. 13.3 lakh people could be cured whereas 15,270 people may succumb to the virus.
Possibility 5: If only 5% of the total number of actual infections were detected and a vaccine would be found by January 1, 2021, then the state may record 12.9 lakh cases by April 4. 12.7 lakh people will recover from the virus and 14,759 may die due to COVID-19.
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