India records 5th highest August rainfall since 2001; IMD predicts 'above normal' rains for September
In August, India recorded 16% more rainfall than the normal, making it the fifth-highest for the month since 2001 and the 29th highest since 1901, as per a TOI report. Despite the substantial rainfall, August also reported the highest average minimum temperature and the fourth highest average mean temperature since 1901.
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FollowThe India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that monsoon rainfall across most parts of the country in September is likely to be 'above normal,' continuing the trend observed in August. However, certain regions, including Uttarakhand, Rajasthan, and parts of Himachal Pradesh and Punjab, are expected to experience extremely heavy rainfall, raising concerns about potential floods and landslides.
In August, India recorded 16% more rainfall than the normal, making it the fifth-highest for the month since 2001 and the 29th highest since 1901, as per a TOI report. Despite the substantial rainfall, August also reported the highest average minimum temperature and the fourth highest average mean temperature since 1901. This unusual combination is attributed to the uneven spatial distribution of rainfall, with northwest India receiving 32% more than normal rainfall, while the southern peninsula saw only a slight increase of around 1%.
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While the overall monsoon season (June to September) is predicted to close with 'above normal' rainfall, the IMD has noted that certain areas might experience 'below normal' rainfall in September. These areas include north Bihar, northeast Uttar Pradesh, most of northeast India, extreme northwest India, and several parts of south Peninsular India. The favourable rainfall in the monsoon core zone has already positively impacted Kharif sowing operations, with the total acreage likely to surpass the 'normal' sown area average of the past five years. This indicates a potential for a higher foodgrain output in the current crop year.
Good monsoon rains are crucial for ensuring adequate soil moisture and sufficient water in reservoirs, which are vital for both Kharif (summer sown) and Rabi (winter sown) crops. The positive rainfall trend in August, particularly in the rainfed areas, has set the stage for a promising agricultural season.
The IMD has also addressed the ongoing discussions around the La Nina weather phenomenon, a periodic cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific that is often linked to favorable monsoon rainfall in India. Although La Nina has not yet formed, it is expected to develop by the end of September. However, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra clarified to TOI that its formation is unlikely to impact the current monsoon season, which may be entering its withdrawal phase by then.
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La Nina typically weakens the northeast monsoon during the September-November period, particularly affecting southeast India. However, Mohapatra emphasized that it is too early to predict its impact on the upcoming winter monsoon, with further assessments to be made by the end of September.
Explaining the reasons behind the heavy rainfall in August, Mohapatra highlighted that six low-pressure systems had formed during the month, with one intensifying into a deep depression and another evolving into a cyclone. These developments were major factors contributing to the enhanced rainfall. Unlike typical August weather, which often sees an increase in 'break' days where the monsoon pauses, this year's August witnessed a high number of active monsoon days, surpassing recent records seen in 2020 and 2022.
In its monthly outlook, the IMD has forecasted 'above-normal' maximum temperatures for most parts of the country in September, except for some areas in northwest India, the southern peninsula, and certain pockets in east-central India, where temperatures are expected to be normal to below normal. Similarly, 'above-normal' minimum temperatures are likely to prevail over most regions, with the exception of isolated pockets in northwest India, the foothills of the Himalayas, and parts of south Peninsular India, where cooler nights are expected.
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