Of the four-month monsoon season in the country, June has ended up with the overall rainfall deficiency of 11% and it is fast declining.
Monsoon is yet to reach several parts of the country; especially north-west India and all-region barring the southern peninsula have received deficient rainfall until now.
In the east and northeast India, monsoon was deficient by 28%, while the deficiency was 17 and 7 percent in central and north-west India respectively.
The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) continues to pass through Dwarka, Vallabh Vidyanagar, Sawai Madhopur, Gwalior, Lucknow, Pantnagar, Dehradun, Una and Jammu. It is expected to cover Delhi, Haryana and Punjab in next two days.
June to September is considered as the rainfall season in India. As per the IMD forecast after two consecutive bad rainfall seasons, this monsoon will be "above normal".
However, some more positive news is in the offing. El Nino, which is related to sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, is in "neutral" condition. The phenomena had hampered monsoon last year and were also a reason for a warmer winter.
"Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently over Maritime Continent and is strong in amplitude, which is favourable for active monsoon conditions over central and north India.
In its forecast for the next 15 days, the IMD has predicted an "above normal" rainfall activity over North India during the first week and over central India during the second week of July. Western parts of the country are likely to receive above normal rainfall activity during the second week.
"The West Coast is likely to receive above normal rainfall until 10 July. Slightly below normal rainfall activity is likely over north-eastern states until July 5 and normal rainfall activity thereafter.
"Normal to below normal rainfall activity is likely over south interior Peninsular India and it is likely until middle of July," the IMD added.
