Africa's slow split may shape a new ocean, say scientists studying tectonic rift

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A continent in slow motion

Deep beneath East Africa, a slow but powerful geological shift is underway — one that scientists believe could eventually reshape the continent and create a brand-new ocean. While this change will take tens of millions of years, the tectonic movement unfolding along the East African Rift is providing researchers with a rare view into how continents evolve and split.

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The East African Rift explained

The East African Rift — one of the world’s most active fault systems — stretches from Ethiopia’s Afar region through Kenya and into Tanzania. It marks the boundary where two massive sections of the Earth's crust, the Nubian Plate (west) and the Somalian Plate (east), are gradually pulling apart. Though the rate is slow, just a few millimetres per year, the long-term geological consequences could be dramatic.

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The ocean that may emerge

Geologists suggest that if this rifting continues, seawater from surrounding bodies may one day fill the widening gap. This would lead to the formation of a new ocean, eventually splitting eastern Africa from the main continent — creating a landmass possibly similar in size and shape to today’s Madagascar.

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The 2018 Kenya crack: dramatic but misunderstood

Public interest in this process peaked in 2018, when a large crack suddenly appeared in Kenya’s Rift Valley. It measured several kilometres long and several metres deep. Many interpreted it as real-time evidence of Africa splitting. However, geophysicist Stephen Hicks offered a more grounded explanation, suggesting that soil erosion from recent heavy rains may have contributed to the surface-level rupture, rather than deep tectonic forces alone.

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Deeper forces still at work

Still, the larger tectonic process is very real. Geologist David Adede, who has studied the East African Rift, says the region has a well-documented history of underground tectonic and volcanic activity. Even if cracks aren’t always visible on the surface, the Earth beneath East Africa is constantly shifting. Another researcher, Lucía Pérez Díaz, points out that while individual cracks might be caused by surface factors, they occur within a broader zone of ongoing tectonic separation.

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A 50-million-year transformation

According to National Geographic and other scientific reports, the complete transformation of the African landscape could take up to 50 million years. If it continues as predicted, the Somali Plate would drift away from the Nubian Plate, forming an ocean basin in between — much like how the Atlantic Ocean once formed from continental drift.

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Earth’s long story continues

For now, the East African Rift remains a powerful example of Earth’s ever-changing nature. Although these changes unfold far beyond the timescales of human life, they offer scientists a glimpse into the deep, ongoing processes that continue to sculpt our world.