Asianet News-CFore Survey: LDF back in power, but BJP gains

The Left-backed alliance is projected to return to power in the 140 member assembly with 72 to 78 seats while the UDF could secure around 59 to 65 seats. The pre-poll survey also predicts that the NDA could win three to seven seats.

The forthcoming election in Kerala could be historic in more ways than one. The Asianet News-CFore pre-poll survey has indicated that the Left Democratic Front government of Pinarayi Vijayan is set to break the trend of alternate governments in the state this election.
 

The survey, which took the opinion of 10,396 respondents in 272 urban centres and 811 rural centres using a systematic sampling methodology, saw the LDF government returning to power in the state with a vote share of over 41 per cent.
 

Overall, the Left-backed alliance is projected to return to power in the 140 member assembly with 72 to 78 seats while the UDF could secure around 59 to 65 seats. The pre-poll survey also predicts that the NDA could win three to seven seats.
 

A deep-dive into the data reveals more.

In North Kerala's 60 assembly segments, which include districts of Kasargod, Kannur, Wayanad, Kozhikode, Malappuram and Palakkad, the LDF could secure 32 to 34  seats with a vote share of 43 per cent while the UDF could win 24-26 seats with a 39 per cent vote share. The NDA could garner up to two to four seats in this region with a vote share of 17 per cent.
 

A similar trend is seen in South Kerala's 39 assembly constituencies comprising Alleppey, Pathanamthitta, Thiruvananthapuram and Kollam, where the LDF is projected to win around 24 to 26 seats with a 41 per cent vote share while the UDF could secure 12 to 14 seats with a 37 per cent vote share. The NDA is likely to win one or two seats with a 20 per cent vote share.
 

Central Kerala is the assembly segment where the Congress-led UDF is expected to perform well. Central Kerala has 41 assembly segments in Thrissur, Ernakulam, Idukki and Kottayam. As per the Asianet News-CFore pre-poll survey, the UDF could win a 42 per cent vote share in his region and get around 23 to 25 seats followed by the LDF which is expected to secure 16 to 18 seats with a 39 per cent vote share. NDA is likely to secure a seat in Central Kerala.
 

The NDA which could barely win 1 seat in the last election, is expected to win more seats and improve its vote share considerably.