Indian benchmark indices opened weak on Tuesday due to FPI outflows, monthly expiry, and mixed global signals. Experts predict a range-bound market with a negative bias, as investors remain cautious amid geopolitical tensions.
Domestic benchmark equity indices opened on a subdued note on Tuesday, with market sentiment remaining cautious amid a lack of positive triggers. Experts expect markets to stay range-bound with a negative bias, driven by FPI outflows, monthly index expiry and mixed global cues. The Nifty 50 index opened at 25,940.90, while the BSE Sensex began the session at 84,600.99, registering a marginal decline of 94.55 points or 0.11 per cent. Market participants remained guarded despite strong domestic macro data.
Expert Analysis and Market Drivers
Ajay Bagga, Banking and Market Expert, told ANI, "India saw a strong IIP number, but markets take these numbers with truckloads of salt, as the reporting by corporates is inconsistent and patchy, leading to wild variations across months. RBI is injecting liquidity as announced earlier, which is a positive. FPI net outflows gained momentum on Monday and absorption by DIIs helped the Indian markets weather this with a mild fall. Its monthly expiry day for key Indian indices. Given the mood of FPIs and lack of positive catalysts, expect dull and range bound markets with a negative bias."
Global Market Influence
Global market movements also weighed on sentiment. A sharp fall in silver and a decline in gold prices were the defining moves on Monday. After a 28 per cent rise in December and over 150 per cent returns in 2025, silver witnessed profit booking, as investors trimmed leveraged positions following its strong rally. Gold, which is up over 2 per cent in December and more than 65 per cent in 2025, also saw selling pressure on December 29, leading to a decline in prices.
Geopolitical Tensions
Geopolitical risks continue to keep global markets, especially crude oil, on edge. Ongoing US-Venezuela tensions, the prolonged Ukraine-Russia conflict, and the possibility of a flare-up in Israel-US-Iran hostilities have added to uncertainty, limiting risk appetite.
Technical Outlook for Nifty 50
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said the market structure indicates short-term weakness. He stated, "Nifty 50 continues to form a lower high-lower low structure on the daily chart, indicating short-term weakness, though the broader trend remains intact for now. The 25,900-25,800 zone stands out as a critical support cluster, aligning with the 50-day EMA, recent monthly lows, and the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement. Holding above this area can stabilise the index and keep the near-term bias neutral to mildly positive."
He added that 26,100-26,150 remains a key resistance band, and a sustained move above this zone could revive momentum toward 26,300-26,500, closer to record highs. However, failure to hold 25,900, particularly in the initial hour of trade, could drag the index lower toward 25,800-25,700.
Overall, experts said subdued volumes, global uncertainty and derivative expiry are likely to keep Indian markets muted in the near term. (ANI)
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