The IEA's largest-ever oil reserve release of 400 million barrels is seen as a limited solution to supply disruptions from the West Asia conflict, particularly if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, according to an S&P Global Energy analysis.
Plans for the largest oil reserves distribution in history, announced by the International Energy Agency this week, are expected to be a limited solution if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, according to S&P Global Energy.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday announced the largest-ever release of emergency oil stocks in its history, making 400 million barrels of oil available to global markets to mitigate disruptions caused in the global energy supply by the ongoing West Asia conflict.
IEA Plan's Effectiveness Questioned
S&P Global Energy asserted that the plan to release oil from reserves will help the market adjust to the current imbalance. However, it remains to be seen how the release will support the markets that need it most, particularly Asian markets, the analysis by S&P said.
It will take months for the 400 million barrels to match the 430 million barrel reduction in global supply in the month of March alone, it noted.
According to Jim Burkhard, Vice President and Global Head of Crude Oil Research, S&P Global Energy, "There is too much oil that cannot be exported via the Strait of Hormuz and not enough in Asia, where stocks are running down. The market is seriously unbalanced and that will continue until the Strait is reopened and upstream and downstream operations return to normal. It will not happen quickly."
Scale of Supply Disruption
The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz represents the largest oil supply disruption in history. S&P Global Energy estimates that roughly 3 to 4 million barrels per day of oil was exported in the first 11 days of March via routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. By contrast, 21 million barrels per day of oil exports transited the Strait before the war.
Market Outlook and Price Volatility
Against this backdrop, S&P Global Energy has updated its base case outlook with the expectation for Dated Brent prices ranging between USD 70-100 on a monthly average basis for the remainder of 2026. This outlook assumes secure tanker flows via the Hormuz resume in the coming weeks. However, the potential for exceptional volatility remains due to the uncertainty of the situation. If the Strait of Hormuz were to be closed for a couple of months (instead of weeks), crude oil prices would likely hit new record highs, it said. (ANI)
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