A potential US-led revival of Venezuelan oil production is poised to challenge Brazil's Petrobras, intensifying regional competition for investment as Guyana and Suriname also expand their offshore projects, putting pressure on Brazilian strategy.
Indications that the United States could push for a revival of oil production in Venezuela, in line with plans outlined by President Donald Trump, are expected to alter the regional energy equation and pose fresh challenges for Brazil and its state-run oil major Petrobras, as reported by Brasil 247.
Venezuelan Revival to Intensify Competition
Venezuela, home to the world's largest proven crude reserves, has witnessed a steep fall in oil output over the past decades. Production, which once peaked at nearly 3.5 million barrels per day, has fallen below 1 million barrels per day. Analysts believe that if US policy changes lead to a gradual recovery in Venezuelan output, competition for investment capital in the oil sector across South America will intensify. According to Brasil 247, this potential shift is increasing pressure on Petrobras to speed up key strategic decisions, particularly related to exploration in Brazil's Equatorial Margin.
Growing Output from Guyana and Suriname
Alongside Venezuela, neighbouring Guyana and Suriname are already advancing large offshore oil projects, which are expected to significantly boost regional supply in the coming years.
Global Energy Markets on Edge
The developments are unfolding against a backdrop of heightened volatility in global energy markets. Oil prices ended higher in the latest trading session amid concerns over supply risks following the US military operation in Venezuela last week. The incident reportedly resulted in the abduction of ousted Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, adding to regional instability and raising risk premiums in crude markets.
Strategic Imperatives for Petrobras
Industry experts say the immediate impact on Petrobras may be limited, but medium- to long-term effects could be substantial as Venezuelan production gradually expands. They note that Petrobras will need to strengthen its competitive position, with the Equatorial Margin seen as a strategic priority.
Regional Production and Reserve Comparison
The region is also witnessing rapid growth elsewhere. Guyana, led by ExxonMobil on its main offshore project, is projected to increase output from around 900,000 barrels per day to nearly 1.3 million barrels per day within two years.
Suriname, which holds over 750 million recoverable barrels, is expected to receive its first TotalEnergies production platform later this year, with production planned to begin in 2028.
While Venezuela's reserves are estimated at about 303 billion barrels, Brazil's Equatorial Margin is believed to hold around 30 billion barrels. However, Venezuelan oil is largely cheaper to extract because its reserves are mostly onshore or in shallow waters, unlike the deep- and ultra-deep offshore fields of Brazil, Guyana, and Suriname. (ANI)
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