Under Modi, India more likely to respond to Pak provocations with force than in the past: US Intel report

'Each side's perception of heightened tensions raises the risk of conflict, with violent unrest in Kashmir or a militant attack in India being potential flashpoints,' the US intel assessment read.

Under PM Modi, India more likely to respond with military force to Pak provocations than in the past: US Intel report

Vipin Vijayan

First Published Mar 9, 2023, 10:27 AM IST

Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India is more likely than in the past to respond with military force to perceived or real Pakistani provocations, a latest United States intelligence report has said.

The Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community, released by the office of the Director of National Intelligence, delved into India-Pakistan relations. The report states, 'Crises between India and Pakistan are of particular concern because of the risk of an escalatory cycle between two nuclear-armed states. New Delhi and Islamabad probably are inclined to reinforce the current calm in their relationship following both sides' renewal of a ceasefire along the Line of Control in 2021.'

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'However, Pakistan has a long history of supporting anti-India militant groups, and under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India is more likely than in the past to respond with military force to perceived or real provocations. Each side's perception of heightened tensions raises the risk of conflict, with violent unrest in Kashmir or a militant attack in India being potential flashpoints,' the US intel assessment read.

The report also noted that India's relations with China, too, remain 'strained' in the wake of the Galwan Valley clash of 2020.

'While India and China have engaged in bilateral border talks and resolved border points, relations will remain strained in the wake of the countries' lethal clash in 2020, the most serious in a decade. The expanded military postures by both India and China along the disputed border elevate the risk of armed confrontation between two nuclear powers that might involve direct threats to US persons and interests and calls for US intervention. Previous standoffs have demonstrated that persistent low-level friction on the Line of Actual Control has the potential to escalate swiftly,' the report said.

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Last Updated Mar 9, 2023, 10:27 AM IST