Expert Waiel Awwad warns that a Republican US midterm win could negatively impact India through tighter H-1B visa restrictions, tariff pressures, and strict immigration policies despite the existing strategic partnership between the two nations.
Potential Impact of US Midterms on India-US Ties
A Republican victory in the upcoming US midterm elections that keeps unchecked power in President Donald Trump’s hands could result in significant "negative impact" for India, particularly regarding H-1B visas, tariff pressures, and strict immigration curbs, foreign affairs expert Waiel Awwad said on Sunday. Speaking to ANI, Awwad noted that while the US views India as an indispensable strategic partner in forums like the Quad and the wider Indo-Pacific, Trump's unilateral policy approach has frequently deviated from the core foundation of the India-US strategic partnership.
"I think India should not see it through the prism of President Trump. India-US relationship is a very strategic one. It is a partnership. What President Trump has done has already deviated from the strategic partnership between the two countries. If the President wins and stays in power with all his authorities in hand, then he will be applying and implementing strict immigration laws, the healthcare law, so the visa restriction, there will be lots of negative impact on India. But overall, I think America see India as a strategic partner, and they want to build up this relation, whether it's through the Quad or through the Indo-Pacific issues where they want India to play a major role. And I believe India is watching it also very closely," Awwad said.
Commercial Pressures and Visa Concerns
“However, of the recent talks, we have seen lots of appeasement and praise for the Indian government from the American side, which is likely to be more of a pressure as well because they wanted to get more deals into the commercial deal with India, with the tariff issues, which are also raised. So I believe it will have a great impact on the outcome of the talk, especially in the commercial things, and also in the H-1B visa for the Indian, which is also of a great concern for the Indian government,” he added.
Midterm Elections and Geopolitical Ramifications
Terming the November 8 midterms as "one of the most important" in modern American history, Awwad said surveys suggest the Republican Party could face major setbacks in both houses of Congress, largely driven by domestic economic dissatisfaction over surging fuel prices.
"I think this is one of the most important midterm elections in American history because President Trump has taken lots of unilateral decisions, and he has been enjoying both the Congress with him. So therefore now, if the midterm election takes place and he lose both the houses, then I think he will be handicapped in implementing his own personal agenda in the being the president in his tenure. The indication is that he will be losing, because most surveys show he is going to lose both houses. That depends on the American mindset because of gasoline issues—prices rising from USD 4.2 to USD 6.5 have had a great impact on Americans. Therefore, he lost his popularity, and Republicans are worried," Awwad stated.
Checks on Unilateral Military Decisions
Discussing the geopolitical ramifications, particularly in West Asia, Awwad argued that a loss of congressional majorities would impose checks on Trump’s unilateral military decisions. He claimed that Trump previously entered conflicts through executive orders without immediate domestic threats, under external pressure from Israeli leadership.
“I believe this is very important because he went unilaterally into the war. He said, 'I am the president, I have the executive order to go for this war,' and there was no threat to the American interest, there was no threat to American citizens, and most of the American lawmakers have said this is a violation of the Constitution of the United States. However, he continued because he was under tremendous pressure from the Prime Minister of Israel, who dragged him into this war, and you know, it wasn't an American war,” Awwad said. He further added, "If he loses the houses, then I think there will be a vote in the Congress before going for any military action. That will have a great impact on his way of conducting the war in Iran," Awwad said, warning that amidst plunging domestic ratings, speculation persists over whether Trump and Israel might escalate military strikes against Tehran.
United States midterm elections are nationwide votes held every four years at the exact midpoint of a president's term. Acting as a major political temperature check for the country, these elections determine control of the federal government by putting all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and about one-third of the Senate up for grabs. (ANI)
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