Pakistan’s renewed closeness with the U.S. under Trump is reshaping regional geopolitics, impacting ties with China, West Asia, Iran and Türkiye, while boosting Islamabad’s strategic and economic leverage.
By Swasti Sachdeva and Mugdha Satpute: Since May 2025, Pakistan’s relations with the United States have experienced a whirlwind. Many factors are driving this rapprochement, particularly American interest in Pakistan’s energy and oil reserves, its growing focus on the Bagram airbase and other factors in Afghanistan, along with its security concerns in West Asia. Pakistan credited the U.S. for the ceasefire after the May 2025 conflict with India and gained attention in Washington. Trump's unique foreign policy approach and increasingly complicated relations with India have further boosted Pakistan-U.S. ties.
As a result, Pakistani leaders have visited Washington, including Army Chief Asim Munir, who has visited the U.S. capital thrice since Trump’s second term. The U.S. also declared the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) a terrorist organization, and the two sides reached an understanding on a trade agreement. Additionally, World Liberty Financial, a fintech company cofounded by Trump’s family members, signed a cryptocurrency deal with Pakistan Crypto Council. Top American leaders have expressed interest in Pakistan’s energy and mineral resources, sought investment opportunities, and see it as a partner in counterterrorism. Furthermore, a recent report to the U.S. Congress described the May conflict with India as a “military success” for Pakistan, emphasizing Washington’s approach.
While Pakistan has advanced rapidly to rebuild ties, it has stepped on a tumultuous route, one that could impact its relations with neighbours in West Asia and China. They have strategic, ideological, and historical relations with Islamabad, and recent developments could trouble those ties. While China shares profound differences with the United States, the response of West Asian countries will vary and could be neutral.
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Beijing’s inroads in Pakistan are multifaceted and run deep, and presently, it does not seem overly concerned about Pakistan-U.S. relations. The traditional friendship remains unshakable as multiple bilateral visits continue, although China may exercise some caution in the future. For now, China may benefit from Washington’s designation of the BLA as a terrorist organization, as its infrastructure, investments, and citizens are often targeted by the group in northwest Pakistan. Instead of competing, the two countries can aim towards creating an interim haven in the region. Moreover, Islamabad’s developing relations with Washington could help Beijing find a reliable diplomatic channel to the White House, considering their ongoing trade negotiations and various geopolitical contestations. However, if Pakistan helps increase American presence in Afghanistan, Beijing will certainly be irked—since the U.S. withdrawal, it has sought to deepen its influence over Kabul. China will also be uneasy if Pakistan increases economic and defence dependence on the U.S., as is evident from some of its recent skepticism on certain China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects.
For countries in West Asia, the consequence of the Pakistan-U.S. reconvergence remains to be seen, and its future trajectory will be crucial. The impact, of course, will be dynamic and will give rise to varying opportunities and challenges. Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE, for instance, may see it as an opportunity to counterbalance Iran and deepen economic cooperation. Additionally, with the recent signing of the “Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement,” Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have deepened their long-established religious, political, economic, and defence ties. Considering the capabilities of the Houthis and the recent Israeli attacks on Qatar, this defence deal is important for Riyadh while also providing a much-needed financial relief to Pakistan. It also highlights Islamabad’s growing role as a credible security provider in the region, helped by the U.S.
Meanwhile, Iran indeed remains wary of the Pakistan-U.S. nexus. The troubled historical relations between Washington and Tehran have intensified under President Trump, particularly fueled by recent U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. While Pakistan condemned the attacks, it also closed its border with Iran. On one hand, these developments could help Tehran and Washington find a diplomatic channel. On the other, further deepening of ties could lead to pressure on Pakistan to conform to American sanctions on Iran and hamper the Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline which the Americans have opposed in the past. It could also increase American presence in the long Pakistan-Iran border, as Islamabad has traditionally been an important intelligence sharing and military partner for the U.S. in the region.
For Türkiye too, the recent Pakistan-U.S. developments are significant. Ankara’s fraternal ties with Islamabad have been evident in its military support and operational assistance during Pakistan’s May conflict with India, as well as the recent signing of more than twenty agreements in the trade and defence sectors. President Trump’s second term has offered Türkiye a hope to reset its ties with the U.S., which had drifted under the Biden administration. Moreover, good bilateral relations could pave the way for trilateral opportunities. However, these developments challenge Türkiye’s conciliatory position in the region. Overall, an increasing presence in Washington’s power circles could lead to a rise in Pakistan’s influence over the region, positioning it as a bridge between the Islamic world and the West.
These foreign policy gambles are not a new challenge for Pakistan. Like India, Pakistan too has grappled with many foreign policy contradictions and global balances. The Cold War is an exemplar of that as it maintained strategic relations with the United States and steadily deepened ties with China; a policy it may be looking to replicate in, as some have described, the era of the ‘new cold war.’ Moreover, considering Pakistan’s depleting economy and intensifying visa bans from its ‘historic partners,’ Islamabad is eyeing more financial assistance through its multinational engagements. Thus, while these growing ties may have a few disadvantages vis-à-vis some countries, overall, they will help advance Pakistan’s stature on the world stage and provide more economic and defence opportunities.
(Swasti Sachdeva is a research assistant and program coordinator for the Security Studies program at Carnegie India. Her research interests include India’s foreign policy, security studies, South and West Asia. Swasti is a postgraduate in international relations and holds a bachelor’s degree in political science.
Mugdha Satpute is a young ambassador at the Security Studies program at Carnegie India. Mugdha holds an LLM in international law, and her research interests broadly cover India’s foreign policy, India-China relations, and the Indo-Pacific.)
