G20 The India Story: "Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping's absence gives G20 Summit a geopolitical complexion"

In the run-up to the highly anticipated G20 Summit 2023 in New Delhi, scheduled for September 9-10, Asianet News Network's special series, "G20 The India Story," offers a unique insight into the preparations for this historic event. The last time India hosted such a gathering was in 1983, during the Non-Aligned Summit, making this occasion all the more significant. In the second episode of the series, Dr. Mohan Kumar, a distinguished former Indian Ambassador currently serving as the Dean of Strategic and International Initiatives at OP Jindal Global University, engages in a thought-provoking conversation about the G20 Summit 2023 and also sheds light on what the importance of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping's absence.

Also watch: G20 The India Story: "1.4 billion Indians introduced to rest of the world through G20 Presidency"

Talking about the prospects of the upcoming G20 Summit 2023, Dr Mohan Kumar notes that India has taken pride in hosting this event, and substantial investments have been made to showcase the country's potential, not only as a diplomatic host but also as an attractive destination for tourism and trade.

"I think what we've done is to take the G20 to the different corners of the country and while some might argue maybe overdoing it my own sentiment is I think we've taken a lot of pride in hosting the event. We have invested in showcasing India and I am absolutely sure this investment will pay returns in the medium to long term. So from a tourism investment and trade perspective, I think India has put its best foot forward and I don't think the logistics, the hospitality and just the sheer variety of the venues can ever be replicated in the G20. That part of it you must give full marks to the government and to the Indian officials who I think have worked day and night to make this happen," he said.

He further said, "Having said that, you have to divide the substantive outcome into two parts - one is ask you said Ukraine, the other as you say is the rest. I would prefer to call it the rest. I think I expect a substantive outcome in the rest of the agenda. That's why I am optimistic about the G20 meeting on 9th and 10th."

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Challenges in address the Ukraine war

The Ukraine crisis has posed a diplomatic challenge for the G20 Summit. Dr Mohan Kumar acknowledges that despite initial efforts by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, it quickly became apparent that the positions of the two sides were irreconcilable. Other nations also attempted mediation but faced similar difficulties. "I pay credit to Indian diplomacy for coming to this conclusion early on that the positions between Russia and Ukraine are unbridgble. Everything I have seen since then makes me believe that our assessment was correct because there's absolutely no chance of a diplomatic solution in the near future. Both sides believe there is something to be gained in fighting it out in the battlefield," he added.

Reforming multilateral system through G20

Dr Mohan Kumar emphasises India's efforts to reform the multilateral system through the G20 platform. While acknowledging the shortcomings of the United Nations, India is focusing on reforming crucial aspects of multilateralism. This includes increasing lending for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and climate action in poorer countries, addressing the issue of debt, and establishing a global framework for expanding digital infrastructure spending.

One intriguing aspect of India's strategy is to provide an alternative to lower-income countries, preventing them from falling into China's debt trap, noted Dr Mohan Kumar. 

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Geopolitical implications of Russia and China's absence from G20 Summit

Dr Mohan Kumar concedes that the absence of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 Summit in New Delhi does diminish its overall significance. However, he believes this is due to evolving geopolitical circumstances, particularly concerning China. The recent geopolitical tensions surrounding China, including disputes with neighboring countries like Nepal, may have contributed to its decision to abstain from the summit.

He said, "China finds itself boxed into a corner. I think the Chinese Communist Party doesn't want its leader to be exposed where he will be asked questions about why China is supporting Russia in Ukraine? Why China has put out a map? Why the PRI initiative has led to debt diplomacy, debt trap and so on."

"The fact that both Russia and China have chosen not to come gives it a geopolitical complexion. There are two inferences I will draw. One is the geopolitical inference. G20 is still seen as a Western structure by Russia and China and they do find themselves boxed in. But I think for India the question is this will have implications for the bilateral relations between China and India and this is something that we'll have to wait and see how that unfolds," he added.

Global South leadership

The concept of the Global South has evolved, and Dr Kumar contends that China, despite its economic prowess, cannot claim to represent the Global South due to its status as a middle-income country and creditor nation. "It's all BRICS and no mortar. The G77 is history, I agree. China does not belong to the Global South. You're a middle-income country, you've abolished extreme poverty, your per capita is 10,000 dollars - I don't think you can legitimately claim to be part of the global south. The Global South will look upon China as a lender as a creditor, as a project assistance giver, but not as a leader of the Global South," he said.

He points to the Digital Public Infrastructure group as an example where India has successfully provided leadership to the Global South. This group has been instrumental in addressing digital challenges and fostering cooperation among developing nations. "Mantle of Global South leadership is up for grabs. It is something that we'll have to wait and see how the game unfolds," he added.

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