Four reasons why Rajinikanth will not sweep Tamil Nadu

NTR went from actor to politician to Chief Minister in the span of eight months. Will Rajini have the same journey? Most probably not

According to the latest reports, superstar Rajinikanth is planning on taking the plunge into politics. And naturally, this has given rise to a feverish excitement, at least in Tamil Nadu. If rumours are to be believed, then he will be joining the NDA, after floating his party. 

While perhaps on the surface this may seem like yet another movie demigod taking the 'rightful' place in Tamil Nadu politics, much has changed since the days of MGR, and even NTR from neighbouring Andhra Pradesh. 

So here are four reasons why Rajini will not be sweeping Tamil Nadu anytime soon. 

1) Gone 66 years without taking the plunge 

Andhra's NTR went from actor to politician to Chief Minister in a span of eight months. Will Rajini have the same journey? Most probably not. For one thing, while it is commonly believed that Tamil Nadu's MGR went from actor to CM, this was not the case.

Like almost everyone in the country with political ambitions, MGR joined the Congress first. After a few years, he shifted to the DMK in 1953. He first became an MLA in 1967. He formed the AIADMK in 1972 and became the CM in 1977 - some 25 years later, at the age of 60. 

Jayalalithaa too had a similar story. This was no tale of an actress at the top of her game converting ticket sales to electoral votes. She joined the AIADMK in 1982, by which time she was already very close to first actor, MGR, then CM MGR. She became the CM of Tamil Nadu in 1991. 

The point here is Tamil Nadu is not a state where someone simply converts film popularity to votes, without first proving their bones in politics for years. 'Captain' Vijaykanth is living proof of that fact. 

If he starts now and assuming that he takes a few years to find his feet and build a party - he will be 70, if not older, before he becomes the CM - presumably his goal. Perhaps a little too late. 

2) Avoided politics all this while 

Of course, Rajnikanth is far greater in stature than Vijaykanth and may prove all of these calculations wrong. But the superstar is 66, having never shown any particularly open inclination in politics, except for a few hasty pronouncements in the 90s. 

So even if we set aside age, it is also quite late to set up a party - just from a technical point of view. Cadres have to be raised, offices have to set up, and a million small tasks be done. And all without any earlier foundations to bank upon other than his films.  

And all of this has to be done even as the DMK, the many factions of the AIADMK and various others will do their utmost to ensure Rajini is given respect, but no victories. Remember the anti-Rajini protests that flared up after his fan meet? There will certainly be more of those. 

3) Politics is a tough game, will he survive? 

In any case, politics is a vicious game - meant for the hard-hearted and cold-blooded. If Rajinikanth has not had the inclination to make strong political statements so far, even at the height of his popularity, it does seem to indicate an aversion to confrontation - never a good sign for a leader. 

Tamil politics has been dominated by incredibly aggressive leaders - from Annadurai to Stalin - who have never been averse to pick a fight or go the whole nine yards when need be. 

Rajini's image so far, shaped by things like his willingness to be seen in public without his wig or makeup, is one of a soft, good-hearted fellow who is humble. And while yes, that does win votes - historically such tropes do not last long in the rough and tumble world of politics. 

4) Times have changed

It is not hard to see why Rajini is considering it. When NTR swept the election back in 1983, it was on the back of the Congress fielding and toppling five CMs in five years. Currently, even Tamil Nadu is on its third CM this term (Jayalalithaa, Panneerselvam and Palaniswamy), so perhaps he will win because people might figure - may as well give him a chance. 

But Chiranjeevi's Praja Rajyam party, and its subsequent unravelling and merging with the Congress, prove - this is not always the case for a film star. 

Times have changed. And few realistically imagine a film actor, popular though they are, can run a state merely because he seems intelligent on screen. And in the past five years at least, Tamil Nadu has faced many issues where Rajini could have been the 'civil' face. But honestly, even actor Siddarth seems to have dominated minds a lot more over those years. 

Like Amitabh Bachchan, Rajini is taking a huge gamble - and it may not pay off in any big way.