According to a poll on Stocktwits that has garnered 6,700 votes, 37% of users expect Tesla to beat profit and revenue expectations.
- Tesla stock has fallen over 4% so far in 2026 and has underperformed its ‘Magnificent Seven peers’.
- Cantor Fitzgerald said during the earnings call on Wednesday that the focus would be on 2026 delivery guidance, Tesla’s energy outlook, progress on Robotaxi, and full self-driving expansion.
- Tesla is expected to post a revenue of $24.61 billion, a 4.2% decline from a year earlier, and profit per share is estimated to fall by over 38% to $0.45, according to data from Fiscal AI.
Investors are waiting for Tesla’s results on Wednesday, with the majority of retail traders on Stocktwits expecting a beat on profit and revenue for the electric vehicle maker, whose shares are marginally up in overnight trading heading into earnings day.
According to a poll on Stocktwits that has garnered 6,700 votes, 37% of the users expect Tesla to beat profit and revenue expectations, while 34% expect the company to miss on both fronts; 16% of voters expect a beat on profit, and a miss on revenue, and 13% expect a miss on profit and a beat on revenue.
Retail traders and investors are eyeing comments on the progress the EV maker has made in self-driving and the impact of the company’s investments in artificial intelligence. The company’s performance in China, where rival BYD has consistently outperformed Tesla, will also be closely watched by investors.
TSLA Stock Move
Tesla stock has fallen over 4% so far in 2026 and has underperformed its ‘Magnificent Seven’ peers, Alphabet, Amazon.com, Meta Platforms, Microsoft and Nvidia. Alphabet stock has jumped nearly 7%, Amazon has added 6%, Meta shares have risen 2%, Nvidia has climbed over 1%, and Microsoft stock has risen nearly 1%. Apple stock fell 5% in January and is the only magnificent seven stock which has underperformed Tesla.
Wall Street’s Expectations For TSLA
Tesla is expected to post a revenue of $24.61 billion, a 4.2% decline from a year earlier, and profit per share is estimated to fall by over 38% to $0.45, according to data from Fiscal AI.
In the first three quarters of the fiscal year, Tesla beat revenue expectations only in the second and third quarters, while it surpassed profit estimates for all the quarters so far this year.
Cantor Fitzgerald said Tesla's fourth-quarter vehicle deliveries and fiscal 2025 volumes came in below consensus, reflecting the expiration of the EV tax credit and marking a second straight year of auto sales decline, while Energy Generation & Storage posted a record year with strong growth momentum.
The firm said during the earnings call on Wednesday, the focus would be on 2026 delivery guidance, energy outlook, progress on Robotaxi and full self-driving expansion, and longer-term optionality from Optimus humanoid robots and the Semi.
Cantor Fitzgerald has an ‘Overweight’ rating and $510 price target on Tesla, according to The Fly. The price target implies a 18.3% upside to the stock’s Tuesday closing price of $430.90.
Tesla had an average ‘Buy’ rating from 46 analysts, according to Koyfin, with 20 rating it ‘Buy’ or higher, 17 ‘Hold’, and nine ‘Sell’ or lower. The average price target on the stock was $411.40, implying a 5% downside to Tesla’s last close.
Tesla’s 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio is 220.8x compared to BYD’s 18.5x, Ford Motor Co’s 10.8x and General Motors’ 7.2x.
What Is Retail Thinking?
Retail sentiment on Tesla dipped to ‘neutral’ from ‘bullish’ a day ago, with message volumes at ‘normal’ levels, according to data from Stocktwits. The stock, which has more than a million followers on Stocktwits, saw retail message volume jump 13% over the last 24 hours.
“Analysts usually adjust down for TSLA but they miss every time anyway. the results are going to be horrible … we'll see,” wrote one bearish user in response to the poll.
"$TSLA earnings miss is guaranteed. Watch out below $300," posted one user.
Shares of Tesla have gained 11% in the last 12 months.
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