Who Will Buy TikTok? Analyst Picks Oracle As Top Contender, Retail Is Less Certain

With President Donald Trump signaling that a deal will be reached to keep TikTok in the United States by Saturday, all eyes are now focused on possible contenders that will eventually acquire the U.S. arm of the ByteDance-owned short-video platform.

Several names are being floated around as potential suitors, including Larry Ellison's Oracle Corp. (ORCL), Liberty Project, founded by former Los Angeles Dodgers owner Frank McCourt, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, and YouTuber Mr. Beast.

Last week, Reuters reported that asset manager Blackstone, Inc. (BX) is considering picking up a minority investment in TikTok's U.S. operations. The firm is reportedly in talks with TikTok's non-Chinese shareholders, led by Susquehanna International Group and Great Atlantic, regarding the investment.

A separate Financial Times report said venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz is in talks to add new outside investment as part of an Oracle-led deal. The deal value has reportedly not yet been finalized but is likely to be determined based on TikTok's sales, which stood at $36 billion last year, excluding China.

Security concerns surrounding user data have necessitated the sale. In 2024, the U.S. passed legislation forcing the company to sell its U.S. unit to non-Chinese investors or face a potential ban, which was upheld by the Supreme Court this year. 

After Trump returned to the White House, he gave a 75-day extension to resolve the issue, which ends later this week.

Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives said, "There are a host of bidders for the TikTok golden asset, but we continue to strongly believe any deal is structured and centered around Oracle and Ellison."

He noted that Oracle is already TikTok's primary cloud provider.

Given Ives' view that Beijing and ByteDance will oppose any sale of TikTok's algorithm, he said ByteDance will retain the algorithm.

"Oracle will be a linchpin to safeguarding U.S. consumer data on TikTok," he added.

The analyst sees ByteDance and China's overall ownership as a minority, although above the 20% threshold required by the U.S. deal.

Ives expects some outline of a deal to be announced by the White House before Friday night. "A deadline extension for 30 days or longer is likely in the cards as well to fully iron out the complex deal structure," he added. 

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment toward Oracle stock remained 'extremely bearish' (24/100) and the message volume stayed 'low.'

ORCL sentiment and message volume, as of 3:17, April 2 | source: Stocktwits

A watcher said despite the swirling rumors, a deal is unlikely as China wouldn't allow a sale.

Oracle stock ended Tuesday's session up 1.52% at $141.94 but it is down about 15% so far this year.

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