TSLA Stock Is October’s Mag 7 King — But 2 Motorcycle Stocks Race Past Tesla Even As Chinese EV Stocks See Red

Tesla’s rally comes after stronger-than-expected deliveries, an earnings beat, Robotaxi progress and speculation about a SpaceX merger.

• Harley’s turnaround is gaining traction, with improving retail sales, leaner dealer inventories and upcoming products.
• LiveWire is exploring financing, sales and restructuring options after leadership changes, despite its October rebound leaving shares down 58% this year.
• Nio, XPeng and Li Auto are down this month as demand, pricing and profitability concerns persist.

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) and its electric motorcycle spinoff, LiveWire Group, Inc. (LVWR), are pulling ahead of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) in October’s auto-stock race, even as the EV giant leads the “Magnificent Seven” and Chinese rivals struggle to gain ground.

LVWR is leading October’s charge with a gain of about 22%, followed by HOG’s 21% advance and TSLA’s 15% rise. Chinese EV stocks, meanwhile, are struggling to find momentum. BYD (BYDDY) has declined 7% this month, Nio (NIO) has slipped 4%, XPeng (XPEV) has lost 3% and Li Auto (LI) is down nearly 1%.

Tesla Takes The Mag 7 Crown

Tesla’s October rally has opened a wide gap over the rest of the “Magnificent Seven.” Apple is up 4% for the month, Microsoft has gained 3.6% and Amazon is up 2%. Nvidia has fallen 5%, Alphabet is down 7% and Meta has dropped 14%. 

Tesla’s October rally has gathered fuel from stronger-than-expected deliveries, an earnings beat and speculation about a SpaceX merger. Third-quarter deliveries hit 486,532 vehicles, beating expectations for 463,761, while September registrations improved across several European markets.

“Demand is growing rapidly for our vehicles. It is exceeding our production by a significant margin,” CEO Elon Musk said.

Adjusted earnings of $0.48 per share topped the $0.45 estimate, free cash flow recovered to $1.53 billion and Tesla cut its annual spending outlook to $20 billion from more than $25 billion. Still, revenue missed expectations and tariff refunds boosted gross profit by $447 million.

SpaceX deal speculation added further momentum. Both companies formed independent committees to explore a combination, although no terms have been agreed yet. ARK said a potential Tesla-SpaceX merger could benefit both shareholder groups, with Tesla’s future robotaxi cash flow helping fund SpaceX’s AI expansion.

Cumulative unsupervised Robotaxi miles increased eightfold during Q3 to nearly 2 million. “The Cybercab fleet in Austin, for example, has grown by a factor of 10 since launch about a month ago,” Musk said.

Tesla expects some customer-owned vehicles to join its Robotaxi fleet around Q2 2027. The Roadster reveal, with production targeted for 2028, added to the excitement, along with early Optimus production, the Semi production launch, and Megapack supply that Musk said was almost sold out for 2027.

Harley Gets Its Turnaround Into Gear

Harley-Davidson’s rally rests on a more traditional recovery story: improving retail momentum, healthier dealerships and new motorcycles designed to reach more riders.

CEO Artie Starrs’ Back to the Bricks strategy prioritizes dealer profitability by matching inventory to demand and cutting costs. Its product roadmap includes the entry-level Sprint and the return of the Sportster, alongside a target of more than $150 million in cost reductions.

North American retail sales rose 3% in Q2, while global dealer inventory ended June 17% below its year-earlier level. Harley raised its full-year outlook for retail sales, shipments and operating income at its motorcycle and financial-services businesses. “We also made meaningful progress against our Back to the Bricks strategic initiatives, strengthening execution across the business and driving improved profitability,” Starrs said in July.

This month, Citi upgraded Harley to ‘Buy’ from ‘Neutral’ and raised its target to $33 from $31, implying a 12% upside from current levels. After several years of caution, Citi said the “facts on the ground have changed.” The firm pointed to building retail momentum, a major product introduction expected in 2027, significant cost savings and potential earnings benefits from LiveWire.

However, tariffs are still a complication. Canada reportedly imposed a 50% import duty on Harley’s products in September. Washington and Ottawa are separately reportedly discussing relief from U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel and autos. Harley reports Q3 results before the market opens on Thursday.

LiveWire Rallies As Its Future Comes Under Review

LiveWire’s October rally contrasts with a nearly 60% decline this year as the electric motorcycle maker explores strategic options.

CEO Karim Donnez resigned last week, and restructuring specialist Roy Gallagher took charge four days later. A new special committee can evaluate financing, sales, restructurings and recapitalizations.

LiveWire posted Q2 revenue of $9.1 million and a net loss of $18.2 million, selling 267 electric motorcycles. Harley projected a $70 million to $80 million full-year operating loss for the segment in July. The company is now broadening its lineup after its Dust Moto asset acquisition, with S4 Honcho and Dust products headed to November’s EICMA show in Milan.

“From STACYC to S4 Honcho to DUST, we’re creating more opportunities for people to get on two wheels, have fun, and build a lifelong connection to riding,” commercial chief Jon Bekefy said. 

China’s EV Makers Face A Tougher Road To Profits

Delivery growth has done little to ease concerns about Chinese EV makers’ pricing power and profitability. Nio’s September deliveries rose 7.7% to 37,408 vehicles, while XPeng delivered 41,256 and Li Auto’s deliveries fell 6.3% to 31,817. China’s broader passenger-car market also shrank 28% in September, extending a 12-month decline, according to China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) data. 

JPMorgan cut its Nio and XPeng targets this month after earlier flagging Nio’s “lukewarm anticipation” for second-half deliveries. The bank warned that weak demand, pricing pressure, and rising costs could weigh on earnings. CLSA also nearly halved its Hong Kong targets for both automakers.

Meanwhile, exports offer some relief. BYD’s September global sales rose 17%, driven by a 154% jump in overseas shipments. However, China will cut EV export VAT rebates to 9% from 13% starting April 2027.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About Automakers?

On Stocktwits, LVWR attracted 'bullish' sentiment, contrasting with 'bearish' readings for HOG and TSLA, even as all three recorded 'high' message volume.

Chinese EV sentiment was divided. XPEV drew a 'bullish' reading amid 'high' message volume, while LI was also 'bullish' but saw 'normal' activity. NIO sentiment was 'bearish,' and BYDDY was 'neutral', both amid 'normal' message volume.

HOG leads the group with a 44% gain this year, while TSLA is down 9%. BYDDY has lost 26%, followed by LI’s 33% decline and NIO’s 35% drop. XPEV and LVWR have suffered the steepest losses, falling 54% and 58%, respectively.

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