Tesla’s Flying Roadster Fuels SpaceX Merger Speculation, But Analysts Question Earnings Impact

Dan Ives pointed to propulsion systems, pressure vessels and control hardware used in the Roadster to reaffirm his stance on the potential SpaceX-Tesla merger.

• Gene Munster described the Roadster demonstration as an “engineering flex”  but said it offers “no commercial value”
• Gary Black said the new Roadster is impressive from a technology standpoint but is unlikely to make a significant contribution to earnings
• JPMorgan kept a ‘Neutral’ rating on the stock after the Roadster event

Tesla’s (TSLA) unveiling of its next-generation Roadster on Thursday turned heads as the car drove off a roller-coaster-like ramp, somersaulting over other Tesla vehicles before using cold-gas thrusters to land, but analysts saw it as a precursor to its merger with SpaceX (SPCX).

Yorkville partner Dan Ives said the ‘impressive event’ puts the spotlight back on the potential merger of the two Elon Musk companies.

At the time of writing, TSLA shares were up 3.2%, while SPCX edged 1% higher.

What Caught Ives’ Attention?

In a post on X, Ives pointed to three key technologies showcased at the event - propulsion systems, pressure vessels and control hardware.

The Roadster uses high-pressure gas stored in specialized tanks to power thrusters for propulsion. The technology draws on SpaceX’s rocket engineering methods.

“The impressive Roadster event puts the Tesla/SpaceX relationship on the table in a tangible way, with propulsion, pressure-vessel, and control hardware developed sitting on a Tesla product, which in our view strengthens the case operating as one engineering platform over time,” Ives said.

Munster Says Roadster Offers No Commercial Value

Deepwater Asset Management's Gene Munster described the Roadster demonstration as an “engineering flex” and “a ridiculous display of engineering” but said it offers “no commercial value” beyond embarrassing traditional car makers.

Munster also echoed Ives’ sentiment, adding that the event highlighted Musk’s ambitions to bring Tesla and SpaceX together.

Barclays Sees Possible Merger Announcement

The statements follow a Barclays note earlier this week suggesting that a Tesla-SpaceX merger could be announced before Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting in December.

Barclays believes the biggest benefit is across AI, robotics, semiconductor manufacturing and space-based infrastructure. The brokerage suggested SpaceX could acquire Tesla through an all-stock transaction, with Tesla shareholders receiving SpaceX shares.

Gary Black Sees Insignificant Returns From Roadster

Meanwhile, Future Fund Managing Partner Gary Black said the new Roadster is impressive from a technology standpoint but is unlikely to make a significant contribution to earnings. Assuming Tesla sells 3,000 Roadsters annually at a profit of $100,000 per car, the vehicle would add $0.06 per share to its projected full-year 2029 earnings of $5.40 per share.

Black remains cautious on Tesla because of its high stock valuation, declining earnings revisions for 2027–2030 and expectations that self-driving technology will become commoditized.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan kept a ‘Neutral’ rating on the stock after the Roadster event. 

Retail Speculates Merger Financials

Retail sentiment surrounding TSLA on Stocktwits remained ‘bearish’ over the past 24 hours, amid ‘high’ message volumes. TSLA was also among the top trending tickers at the time of writing.

One user called the event a “confidence builder demo!”

View this Stocktwits post

Another user speculated a $700 per share merger.

View this Stocktwits post

Tesla continues to remain the only stock among the Mag 7 cohort that is trading in the red so far in 2026.

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