Ming-Chi Kuo discussed his thoughts on the Moseeker podcast.
- Ming-Chi Kuo said the company will be under significant pressure to improve Siri and Apple Intelligence by WWDC 2026.
- Apple’s foldable iPhone development is behind schedule.
- There are concerns about soaring AI-linked valuations, but signals suggest AI demand remains high.
Noted Taiwanese analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, known for his ahead-of-the-curve Apple forecasts and deep insights into its Asian supply chain, has weighed in on some of the AI industry’s most pressing themes.
Kuo echoed the broader industry view, calling Gemini 3 a meaningful leap that should bolster Google’s standing, while warning that Apple is in crisis mode, with the urgency and quality of its AI features and a foldable iPhone set to be pivotal next year. On the “AI bubble,” he said, AI-driven tech company valuations look debatable, but underlying AI demand remains real.
Here’s a breakdown of his comments based on a Gemini translation of his remarks on the Moseeker podcast and his self-published notes.
Apple’s In A Bind
Kuo said, “Apple will be under significant pressure to improve Siri/Apple Intelligence by WWDC,” likely in June, and that may push it to “deepen its collaboration with Google’s Gemini. However, over the long run, Apple is still expected to develop its own in-house AI model.”
Meanwhile, Apple’s foldable iPhone is behind earlier expectations and is expected to be announced in the second half of next year, although smooth shipments may not occur until 2027.
Apple's AI strategy is in doldrums, a widely held view explored by Stocktwits in a recent explainer. Its devices still lack AI features found in competing phones and laptops, which has contributed to the iPhone losing its shine in the tech-forward Chinese market. Apple has had to reorganize its AI teams and partner with OpenAI and Alibaba (for the Chinese market) to deliver AI features – bold moves that have yet to yield tangible results.
“Apple felt the pressure of the AI shift in 2023,” Kuo said. “This sense of urgency drove more aggressive innovation within the iPhone lineup, resulting in the 2025 iPhone Air and the foldable iPhone expected in 2026.”
On Apple Intelligence, Kuo argued that Apple is not aiming for a more innovative chatbot but is “trying to make the iPhone more useful by letting the AI access your personal context. The success of Apple Intelligence depends on whether 'convenience' is enough to make people upgrade their hardware."
“Apple's biggest mistake was the gap between the June announcement (WWDC) and the actual release. By the time the features started arriving in October, the 'AI frenzy' had already moved on to the next thing in the cloud.”
“When the most important parts of Siri—the parts that actually make the phone 'smart'—get delayed until 2025, you lose the emotional momentum of the product launch. Customers feel like they are buying a promise, not a product." //block quote.//
Still, the iPhone 17 lineup has been well received, according to IDC, helping Apple’s stock steadily climb to all-time highs in the back half of the year.
Gemini 3 The Disruptor
Google’s latest large language model has drawn widespread praise since its Nov. 18 unveiling, helping Alphabet shares post the strongest rally among the Magnificent Seven this year.
“Users could immediately feel the leap in image-generation quality and the convenience of deep integration with Google Workspace,” Kuo said, adding that Gemini 3 instantly became the center of attention.
However, the more fundamental driver of its successful launch is Google’s organizational structure and strategy, which other companies adopting TPUs (Tensor Processing Unit) cannot easily replicate, Kuo said. “Near-term stock price moves in the TPU supply chain were sentiment-driven. Longer term, the key watch is large-scale TPU adoption by Anthropic and Meta in 2026, which would more meaningfully drive wafer demand post-2027.”
What About The AI Bubble?
Kuo said the debate essentially boils down to two questions: Is the demand for AI real? And, are the valuations of AI-related stocks too high? Those concerns led to a market sell-off and Nvidia's stock declining even after strong earnings last month.
“Most people agree that AI demand is real, but they hold differing views on the service platform/device (e.g., phones vs. glasses), the timeline (e.g., when humanoid robots will be common), and the business models (e.g., integration strategy with e-commerce),” said Kuo.
He added that AI equity valuations remain “highly contentious,” with discussions focused on three potential risks: whether profits keep pace with capital expenditures; circular financing; and infrastructure bottlenecks, such as power supply, that are limiting AI growth.
“Even if circular financing comes under stress, some form of government intervention is likely,” he forecasted.
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