TD Cowen expects AI compute leasing to generate about 60% of 2027 revenue and forecasts 62% annualized revenue growth through 2031.
- TD Cowen sees the potential for nearly 1,000 yearly low Earth orbit launches by 2031.
- RBC, Clear Street and CLSA set price targets of $225, $217 and $250, and the four firms’ targets imply about 37% to 72% upside from current levels.
- SpaceX contacted all 26 satellites and completed planned splashdowns, though engine shutdowns prompted it to shorten Starship’s time in orbit.
Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) gained 0.2% overnight heading into Tuesday after Starship’s successful orbital delivery of 26 next-gen Starlink satellites, with analysts seeing a larger opportunity in AI computing and more frequent launches.
SPCX stock fell 2% on Monday to $145.47, but shares are still up 1% for the month.
Starship Win Boosts Wall Street’s SpaceX Forecasts
TD Cowen initiated coverage with a ‘Buy’ rating and $200 price target, calling SpaceX’s broader AI and space opportunity “massive.” The firm expects AI compute leasing to generate about 60% of revenue in 2027, forecasts 62% compound annual revenue growth from 2026 to 2031, and sees the potential for nearly 1,000 low Earth orbit launches by 2031.
RBC Capital reiterated its ‘Outperform’ rating and $225 target, calling Flight 14 a significant milestone for Starship’s launch capabilities and the deployment of Starlink V3. Clear Street maintained its ‘Buy’ rating and $217 target, saying the mission advanced SpaceX’s ability to scale a higher-capacity constellation, while the engine issues underscored remaining execution risk. CLSA initiated coverage with an ‘Accumulate’ rating and $250 target.
Based on SPCX’s last close, TD Cowen’s $200 target implies about 37% upside, Clear Street’s $217 target about 49%, RBC’s $225 target about 55%, and CLSA’s $250 target about 72%.
Starship Clears First Orbital Test
Starship lifted off from Texas on Monday, entered Earth orbit for the first time and deployed all 26 Starlink V3 satellites. SpaceX said it made contact with every satellite. The Super Heavy booster splashed down in the Gulf, while Starship completed its first deorbit burn and splashed down at its designated Pacific site.
However, the flight was not flawless: a booster engine shut down during ascent, and a Starship vacuum engine shut down early. The remaining upper-stage engines burned longer to compensate. SpaceX shortened the time in orbit as a precaution before successfully bringing Starship home.
Starlink V3’s Capacity Leap
First Principles Group managing partner Rob Maurer gave a striking comparison on X: “With today’s single Starship launch, SpaceX added more Starlink capacity in the last hour than the first ~1.5 years of Starlink launches.”
Phil Beisel, a Rivian senior director and former Apple executive, called the deployment “an extraordinary achievement.” He said each V3 satellite is designed for 1.16 terabits per second of user capacity and 2.4 terabits per second of optical links between satellites. The links, he said, could eventually form the backbone of a network that routes more traffic and potentially connects computing resources through space.
Meanwhile, Tesla investor Sawyer Merritt estimated that each V3 satellite increases the bandwidth capacity of the existing Starlink constellation by 0.11%.
How Do Retail Traders Feel About SPCX?
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for SPCX improved to ‘neutral’ from ‘bearish’ levels a day ago amid a 74% rise in 24-hour message volumes.
One user said, “$SPCX as someone who is holding this for 5-10 years…I’m ecstatic. The money will come. Every major analyst confirms that. I’m elated that I just saw satellites deployed, in 4k, delivered by the largest rocket ever built, that I own a piece of!!”
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Another user said, “$SPCX Both the fire during reentry and the massive fireball explosion upon hitting the water are completely normal—and expected—for this stage of Starship's testing. In fact, today's Flight 14 mission was a historic success.”
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SPCX stock has declined 10% year-to-date.
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