Analyst Tim Farrar said that investors are backing Elon Musk's long-term vision rather than SpaceX's current launch, Starlink, and AI businesses.
- Farrar said SpaceX would need a 50x increase in revenue over the next five years to justify its valuation.
- Musk recently predicted SpaceX could generate $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030 and exceed that level in 2031.
- Farrar flagged Starlink as a key near-term risk, citing a sharp decline in revenue per user and recent price hikes, suggesting slower-than-expected growth.
Shares of SpaceX jumped 8% overnight late Monday after the company’s valuation crossed $2.5 trillion for the first time, extending its blockbuster post-IPO rally. However, one analyst says the company would need a mammoth increase in revenue over the next five years to justify its market value.
SPCX stock surged nearly 20% in its second trading session, adding $420 billion to SpaceX's market cap.
Investors Back Musk Over SPCX Fundamentals
The rally has been fueled largely by investor confidence in Elon Musk's long-term vision rather than SpaceX's current financial profile, according to Silicon Valley-based satcom and wireless spectrum consultant Tim Farrar. He said that the company's launch operations, Starlink satellite internet business and emerging AI initiatives alone do not support a trillion-dollar valuation at the current scale.
"If you value it just based on the launch business, the Starlink business and the AI businesses as it exists today, you wouldn't be paying two trillion dollars for this company," he said during a CNBC interview. Instead, he said that investors are placing a premium on Musk's ability to unlock entirely new growth engines.
"A lot of the valuation in here is trust that Elon Musk will come up with something, pull a rabbit out of the hat, and get this sort of 50 times increase in revenue that he's talking about over the next five years," Farrar said.
Musk's $1 Trillion Revenue Bet For SPCX
The comments came after Musk said he expects SpaceX to generate $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030 and potentially exceed that level the next year. That forecast has become a key pillar of the bull case after the company's record-breaking IPO, which raised $75 billion and debuted at a valuation of $1.77 trillion.
Farrar compared SpaceX to Tesla, in which investors have historically assigned value based on Musk's future ambitions rather than on existing business fundamentals. He also pointed to Starlink as the company's most critical near-term business and flagged signs of pressure in recent operating trends. "The revenue per user fell quite dramatically in the first quarter," Farrar said, adding that recent Starlink price increases "suggest that revenue is falling a little bit short of expectations."
SpaceX is expected to report second-quarter results in late July or early August, a report Morningstar has called the stock's "first key test." Investors are expected to focus closely on Starlink subscriber growth, profitability trends and spending tied to Starship development.
Analyst Sees SpaceX's Lead Intact
Although Farrar questioned SpaceX’s valuation, he was bullish on SpaceX's competitive edge: "They've done things in the space industry that no one's ever done before," he said. "Even companies with almost unlimited resources like Amazon are struggling to catch up now." He added that SpaceX is likely to maintain its dominance in satellite internet and direct-to-device connectivity for several years.
The bigger question, he said, is not whether SpaceX leads the market, but whether the market itself becomes large enough to support Musk's trillion-dollar revenue ambitions.
Investors may soon face another source of volatility beyond earnings. Under the company's amended S-1 filing, restricted shareholders will be allowed to begin selling shares shortly after the first earnings report. Morningstar estimates the initial unlock represents 7% of outstanding shares, exceeding the size of the IPO itself.
How Do Retail Traders Feel About SPCX?
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for SPCX has been ‘extremely bullish’ over the past month amid a 545% surge in 24-hour message volumes.
One user said, “$SPCX Closing in on Amazon and Microsoft market cap. I did not see this coming. Stunned. Not even sure if the company will be profitable in 2027. This market is blowing dot com away.”
View this Stocktwits post
Another user said, “$SPCX I expect this to level off at around $400 ($5T mkt cap). If $PLTR can have the valuation it has, SPCX can have 5t.”
View this Stocktwits post
For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.<
