Man Group's Dan Taylor said SpaceX is "more of a bet on Elon Musk than an AI story."
- The analyst said AI-related IPO enthusiasm will ultimately depend on whether AI spending generates real commercial returns.
- SpaceX reported a $4.9 billion loss in 2025 and another $4.28 billion loss in Q1 2026.
- The recent pullback came as SPCX options began trading, giving bears their first way to bet against the stock.
SpaceX shares rose 1.7% in premarket trading on Thursday following their first post-IPO dip in the previous session. An analyst has now challenged Elon Musk's prediction that his company could reach $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030, arguing that investors are essentially paying for the CEO's track record of defying expectations rather than a clear path to that milestone.
SPCX stock fell 5% on Wednesday, snapping a blistering post-IPO rally that had driven the stock nearly 50% above its offering price and briefly pushed the company's market cap past Amazon and, for a short period, Microsoft.
SPCX Is More Of An Elon Bet Than An AI Play?
Dan Taylor, portfolio manager at Man Group, said, "SpaceX's valuation doesn't reflect the overall health of the artificial-intelligence sector." Instead, the stock's performance appears to be "more of a bet on Chief Executive Elon Musk than an AI story," he added, according to Dow Jones Newswires.
Taylor also pushed back on Musk's recent forecast that SpaceX could generate $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030. While acknowledging Musk's history of proving skeptics wrong, Taylor said that the company is unlikely to reach that target within the proposed timeframe. "The company isn't likely to hit Musk's $1 trillion revenue target by 2030," Taylor said.
The analyst added that the pipeline of future AI-related IPOs may ultimately depend on whether the current AI spending boom produces sustainable commercial returns. He pointed to a fragmented tech sector, where semiconductor stocks are benefiting from AI enthusiasm, while many software names have lagged. "The divergence is likely to persist until AI investments' commercial returns become clearer," Taylor said.
Can SpaceX Hit Musk's $1 Trillion Revenue Target?
Taylor's comments come days after Musk said that SpaceX "might be able to reach approximately" $1 trillion in annual revenue in 2030. The projection drew investor attention as the newly public company climbed into the ranks of the world's most valuable corporations. Despite its dominant position in the space sector through Starlink and reusable launch services, SpaceX reported a $4.9 billion net loss in 2025 and lost another $4.28 billion in the first quarter of 2026.
The stock's recent decline also comes after the launch of SPCX options on Tuesday, giving bearish investors their first way to bet against the shares. Trading activity was massive on day one, with nearly one million call contracts changing hands, making SpaceX one of the most actively traded options names on Wall Street.
Gary Black, managing director of The Future Fund, said that the lack of stock available to borrow for short selling and the absence of put options had constrained bears in the stock's first three trading sessions.
How Do Retail Traders Feel About SPCX?
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for SPCX was ‘bullish’ amid ‘extremely high’ message volume.
One user said, “$SPCX Massively overbought and overvalued. The drop is clearly written in the stars, surprised Elon missed it.”
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Another user said, “$SPCX Pretty sure the richest man ever… figured out something with only releasing 5% of the float… and 20% to retail… not too worried about low price for this stock… Elon has a plan for this stock price to be way higher…”
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