SpaceX’s Q2 Fuels AI Growth Optimism, But Lock-Up Overhang Keeps Wall Street Split

Analysts were divided over SPCX stock’s trajectory, with Bulls praising its AI growth while Bears warned that rising capex and the upcoming lock-up expiry could trigger a selloff.

• JPMorgan raised its price target to $240 from $225 and maintained an ‘Overweight’ rating, adding that SPCX’s AI revenue growth could come forward by at least a year.
• Piper Sandler lowered its price target to $140 from $156, and maintained a ‘neutral’ rating.
• SpaceX’s Q2 AI revenue surged 247% on an annual basis.

SpaceX’s second-quarter earnings have given Wall Street more reasons to believe in its artificial intelligence (AI) ambitions, but not necessarily its stock. Analysts remained divided on SpaceX (SPCX) after its second-quarter earnings, with several brokerages reaffirming bullish views on its AI-driven growth while others warned that heavy spending, valuation concerns and the upcoming lock-up expiry could weigh on the stock.

SPCX shares were down 11% in pre-market trading on Wednesday.

Brokerages See Long-Term Growth On AI Push

BofA reaffirmed its ‘Buy’ rating and $235 price target, according to The Fly. This represents an upside potential of more than 110% from current levels. The brokerage noted that SpaceX beat expectations on revenue and profitability and added it is “more positive” in the company’s positioning across its key markets following Q2 results.

JPMorgan raised its price target to $240 from $225 and maintained an ‘Overweight’ rating, citing the company’s vertically integrated business model and rapid AI expansion. The firm said SpaceX’s target of reaching a $100 billion annual recurring revenue (ARR) run rate by December 2026 and $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030 could pull forward AI revenue growth by at least a year.

Wells Fargo, while trimming its price target to $215 from $230, maintained an ‘Overweight’ rating, saying management outlined a more ambitious AI roadmap than expected, with stronger 2027 capacity additions and higher revenue, earnings and capital expenditure forecasts.

SpaceX reported $7.81 billion in Q2 revenue, up 92% from last year. Wall Street expected revenue of $6.82 billion, according to Fiscal.ai. Starlink revenue rose 67%, launch revenue increased 29%, while AI revenue surged 247%.

Lock-Up Expiry And Spending Remain Key Risks

However, Piper Sandler lowered its price target to $140 from $156, and maintained a ‘neutral’ rating. The brokerage expects fiscal 2027 capital expenditure to reach about $65 billion, roughly $17 billion above previous estimates, and cautioned that AI cloud contracts, while profitable, can be canceled, according to The Fly.

The firm also highlighted the upcoming expiration of SpaceX’s lockup period, adding that the number of tradable shares could increase by more than 140%. The first unlock is scheduled for Aug. 6, 2026, followed by additional releases in December 2026 and June 2027. Lock-up periods prevent early investors from selling shares immediately after a public listing.

Recently, Morgan Stanley said many investors expect SpaceX shares to fall to $100 after the lock-up restrictions begin expiring. Morningstar maintained its $62 fair value estimate, calling the stock “significantly overvalued.”

SPCX Bears Expect Stock To Test $60

Retail sentiment surrounding SPCX on Stocktwits turned ‘neutral’ from ‘bullish’ over the past 24 hours, amid a 270% increase in message volumes.

One user expects the “real selloff” to start tomorrow with the stock potentially testing $60.

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Another user said “one of the easiest shorts ever” with no “positive catalyst” for the stock.

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The stock has slumped more than 30% so far this year.

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