Robinhood Stock Nears All-Time High As Wall Street Sees Revenue Doubling, Retail Bets On Q4 Earnings Beat

Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD) surged more than 5% Wednesday afternoon ahead of its fourth-quarter earnings, scheduled for after the market close.

Wall Street expects Robinhood to report earnings of $0.52 per share on revenue of $952 million, more than doubling from the same quarter last year. 

Morgan Stanley anticipates a "beat and raise" quarter, citing Robinhood’s ability to capture market share by accelerating content curation to attract younger investors in their prime earning years. 

The brokerage also pointed to cyclical factors boosting retail engagement and the potential for regulatory changes — particularly in cryptocurrency — that could unlock new revenue streams.

It expects investors to focus on transaction-based revenue growth, first-quarter 2025 trends, and further developments in content expansion.

Pre-earnings options activity has been elevated, with The Fly reporting that volume was 1.1 times the normal level by Wednesday afternoon, with calls outpacing puts by a 5:3 ratio. 

Implied volatility suggests the market is pricing in an 11% move, or about $6.20, following results — significantly higher than the median 6.8% move over the past eight quarters.

Robinhood Markets Sentiment and Message Volume on Feb.12 as of 2:00 p.m. ET | Source: Stocktwits

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment was ‘extremely bullish’ accompanied by ‘high’ levels of chatter as investors anticipated beat-and-raise Q4 results. 

One user forecast that Robinhood would be the best-performing stock this year. 

Robinhood shares are currently just 2.3% below their all-time intraday high of $57.27. Short interest stands at 1.9%, according to Koyfin.

The stock has gained more than 370% over the past year, including a 45% rise year-to-date. 

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