Micron says its technology remains at least two nodes ahead of Chinese memory rivals.

  • Micron’s Q4 revenue rose 380%, and its Q1 sales forecast also topped expectations.
  • China exposure is expected to fall into the single-digit range in fiscal 2027.
  • Stronger shareholder returns could begin in December as CHIPS Act restrictions expire, CFO says.

Micron Technology Inc. (MU) shares rose just 0.2% in overnight trading despite the memory chipmaker delivering another blowout quarter and a stronger-than-expected outlook. Wall Street analysts and retail traders stayed optimistic as the memory-and-storage solutions provider reported record revenue.

Micron Says China Still Two Nodes Behind

China remains a key investor concern as domestic memory makers such as ChangXin Memory Technologies, or CXMT, rapidly expand production. CXMT completed a major IPO in July and has been gaining share in commodity DRAM, raising questions over whether Chinese competitors could eventually pressure the global memory leaders.  

“Currently, our technology leadership is at least 2 nodes ahead of the China competition,” Scott DeBoer, Micron’s president and chief technology and product officer, said.

At the same time, Micron is reducing its direct exposure to China. Chief Operating Officer Manish Bhatia said the company’s China exposure “has been reducing over the last couple of years” and is expected to fall into the “single-digit range” in fiscal 2027.

That strategy could reduce Micron’s dependence on a market where Chinese suppliers are becoming increasingly competitive.

Buybacks Could Return In December

Micron also signaled that shareholders could see significantly larger buybacks as restrictions linked to the U.S. CHIPS Act funding expire.

“We have the ability and the intent to increase our capital return, and you can expect us to seek to increase our authorization and commence stronger capital return from December 9th in accordance with the agreements we have on CHIPS,” CFO Michael Murphy said.

Micron currently has $2.2 billion of repurchase authorization remaining.

Memory Crunch Seen Lasting Into 2028

Management remains confident that the memory shortage has further to run.

“Industry demand has strengthened since our last earnings call,” CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said, adding that supply-demand conditions should be “much tighter” in fiscal 2027 and 2028 than in 2026. Micron expects about $25 billion in capital expenditures in the first half of fiscal 2027, including roughly $11.5 billion in the first quarter.  

Micron reported fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $54.23 billion, up 379%, while adjusted EPS reached $33.42. The company expects first-quarter revenue of about $61.5 billion, above Wall Street expectations. 

After the report, Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and $1,100 price target on MU, saying it expects the stock to move modestly higher because Micron’s revenue and earnings beat Wall Street expectations. The target implies a 3.3% rise from the stock’s Wednesday close. However, the company’s gross profit margin outlook came in below expectations, according to the analyst, although the market had set a particularly high bar going into the results.

Investors will now watch for updates on Micron’s 2027 spending plans, as well as what the company says about demand and pricing in its traditional DRAM and NAND memory businesses, Goldman Sachs said.

On X, The Futurum Group CEO Daniel Newman argued that most of Micron’s current growth is pricing-driven because new supply is more than a year away, while demand for memory remains extremely strong.

“Demand for memory remains through the roof. Bigger growth will come as new supply becomes available and we will still be memory constrained,” he said.

Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management CEO Ross Gerber called Micron “a beast” after the results, arguing the business is becoming less cyclical as AI drives sustained memory demand.

Retail View On MU

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for MU climbed from ‘bullish’ to ‘extremely bullish’ on Wednesday. “$MU weird that it's flat after such a great earnings report.  reminds me of what happened to Samsung and SK Hynix after their stellar ER's,” a trader said.

Another wrote: “$MU memory isn’t done. $NVDA $AMD semis aren’t done. Bubble not popping yet.”

The muted reaction suggests much of Micron’s blowout earnings and upbeat outlook had already been priced in after its sharp run-up ahead of the report. Shares of peer SanDisk Corp (SNDK) were flat in overnight trading.

Micron stock has gained 11% in September and is up 273% year to date.

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