Bitcoin hit $126K highs in 2025 before cooling to the $90K range, with volatility driven by macroeconomic shifts, profit-taking, and regulatory changes.
- Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen asserted that traders should stop trying to manufacture a bull market.
- Cowen pointed to a sustained decline in the Advance Decline Index (ADI) of the top 100 cryptocurrencies since 2021.
- Cowen’s comments aligned with a recent Matrixport report that shows Bitcoin and Ethereum options have fallen sharply since peaking in 2025.
As Bitcoin pulled back from 2025 highs, market watchers are questioning whether the crypto bull market ever fully returned. Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen said on Tuesday that traders should stop trying to manufacture a bull market.
On X, Cowen spoke about the Advance Decline Index (ADI) of 100 cryptocurrencies, which has been in a prolonged downtrend since 2021. ADI is a market breadth indicator that allows analysts to confirm trends, spot divergences, and gauge the market sentiment. Cowen said that the rally many investors associate with the 2020 to 2021 bull market was driven by broad participation across crypto classes, and not just Bitcoin (BTC).
Cowen argued that Bitcoin’s recent bull phases were largely defensive in nature, with investors moving out of altcoins and into Bitcoin. As a result, Bitcoin’s strength masked its underlying weakness across the altcoin market for several years.
According to Cowen, the altcoin market appears more fragile as Bitcoin’s momentum slowed, with liquidity “[spreading] thinner and thinner.”
Bitcoin’s Price From 2021 To 2025
In the 2021 bull market, Bitcoin had a huge jump, going up by over 1600% from its low in 2020, according to Crypto Research. Bitcoin's price cycle in 2025 was marked by big swings and changing market conditions. In the middle of the year, BTC reached new all-time highs above $126,000, driven by institutional demand and macro catalysts. By the end of the year and into early 2026, it had pulled back and settled in the high-$80,000s to mid-$90,000s.
Investors saw a large decline from the October 2025 peak due to macroeconomic uncertainty and profit-taking. But there was headway on the regulatory front, and optimism in U.S. legislation further fueled bullish sentiment. Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $94,913, up 3.2% in 24 hours and currently down 24.71% since its all-time high in October 2025. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around the apex crypto improved from ‘bearish’ to ‘bullish’ territory, accompanied by ‘normal’ chatter levels over the past day.
Options No Longer Driving Crypto
The fall in participation is also showing in the derivatives market. Cowen’s comment aligns with a recent analysis from Matrixport, a leading crypto platform, which said that options markets were no longer a major driver of crypto price action. Matrixport noted that Bitcoin and Ethereum options exposure peaked in mid to late 2025 and then declined sharply.
Bitcoin options notional exposure has fallen from roughly $52 billion to around $28 billion, while Ethereum options activity has also declined. This unwind suggested that investors are stepping back from leveraged bets, reducing the influence of derivatives on spot price.
Read also: MSTR vs. MARA: Strategy’s Bitcoin Accumulation Is 11 Times MARA’s Stack
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