Firefly Aerospace has been firmly on retail investors' radar, with speculation around a potential Golden Dome award emerging as a major upside catalyst for the stock.
- Speculation that Firefly Aerospace could be among the awardees for the U.S. military's "Golden Dome" missile defense initiative sent the company's shares up about 4% in after-hours trading.
- The SHIELD contract, also known as the Golden Dome project, is a multi-layer missile defense system for the U.S. intended to detect and destroy missiles.
- Last year, Firefly garnered investor interest for its tie-up with L3Harris Technologies for three dedicated launches on Firefly's Alpha vehicle in 2026.
Firefly Aerospace's stock is set to finish the week higher if after-hours gains hold, and possibly extend its winning streak to a third consecutive week to start the new year. The move follows both speculation around its link to a key defense project under the Trump Administration and an update to the company's Alpha launch vehicle.
Although there has been no official confirmation from Firefly or the U.S. Department of Defense, retail traders on Stocktwits and users on X have pointed to Firefly as a likely awardee of the "Golden Dome" project.
Firefly’s stock jumped nearly 4% higher after the closing bell on Thursday, following a slight dip in regular trading hours.
The Missile Defense Agency (MDA) has made an additional 340 awards under the Scalable Homeland Innovative Enterprise Layered Defense (SHIELD) contract, also known as the "Golden Dome" project, a multi-layer missile defense system for the U.S. intended to detect and destroy missiles.
Alpha Rocket Update Adds Fuel
Firefly's week started with the announcement of a Block II configuration upgrade for its Alpha rocket, focusing on reliability, streamlining production, and improving launch operations. The company's upcoming Alpha Flight 7, scheduled to launch next week, will be the final mission using the current configuration. The flight will also serve as a testbed, flying several Block II subsystems in "shadow mode" to validate performance before the full Block II rollout planned for Alpha Flight 8.
Firefly drew heavy investor interest last year through its partnership with L3Harris Technologies, under which it will conduct three dedicated Alpha launches in 2026. The agreement positions Firefly to provide rapid, cost-efficient access to low Earth orbit in support of U.S. government responsive space missions.
FLY Stock Performance
Shares of Firefly have lost nearly 50% of their value since its August IPO but have gained almost 33% so far this year, driven by several acquisitions and defense contracts.
The company last year announced the acquisition of defense technology player SciTec International for $855 million in a cash-and-stock deal. Firefly had also announced a $10 million contract addendum under NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services initiative.
What Retail Traders Feel About FLY
Retail discussion around Firefly continues to build. However, sentiment on Stocktwits has recently shifted from 'bullish' to 'bearish' over the past week, while message volume remains at normal levels.
Notably, Firefly's follower count on Stocktwits has surged 705% over the past year, reflecting sustained retail interest. One user projected the stock could reach $34–$35, implying roughly 18% upside from the last closing price.
Shares of Firefly have gained more than 20% in the last 12 months. Wall Street remains bullish overall on FLY, with five out of eight analysts covering the stock rating it a 'buy' or 'strong buy', according to Koyfin data.
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