Jason Calacanis bought small positions in WRD, PONY, LCID and RIVN, betting all four will be acquired within 24 months.

  • The early Uber investor expects the four investments, as a group, to double in less than two years.
  • Calacanis said progress by Tesla, Waymo and Uber could drive consolidation across autonomous transportation.
  • WeRide and Pony.ai are expanding robotaxi services with Uber, including upcoming deployments in Spain and elsewhere in Europe.

Early Uber Technologies, Inc. investor Jason Calacanis has bought small positions in WeRide (WRD), Pony.ai (PONY), Lucid Group (LCID) and Rivian Automotive (RIVN), betting that the race to build robotaxi fleets will lead to takeovers. He expects all four companies to be acquired within 24 months and the investments, as a group, to double in value in less than two years.

Calacanis has previously backed Uber, Robinhood, Thumbtack and Calm. His new picks span two parts of the autonomous driving business: WeRide and Pony.ai develop driverless technology and operate robotaxis, while Lucid and Rivian are preparing vehicles for large fleets.

Calacanis Bets On A Robotaxi Buying Spree

“Consolidation is coming to the autonomous space based on the massive progress that Tesla, Waymo, and Uber are making,” Calacanis said on X. “I believe these four companies are going to be bought in the next 24 months and I expect, as a group, that I will 2x my investment in under two years.”

He called the trades “tiny bets” and said he considers them one to four-year investments. By comparison, he typically buys equities with the intention of holding them for more than 10 years. Calacanis said he does not day trade, invited others to scrutinize his thesis and noted that he has other autonomy investments, including private companies Zipline and Autolane.

Last week, reacting to Lucid’s new European fleet deal, he made an even broader prediction: “All car companies are now going to become Robotaxi companies!” The takeover forecast is his view; none of his four stock picks has announced a sale.

WeRide And Pony.ai Race Across Borders 

WeRide and Pony.ai are both expanding through partnerships with Uber. This month, WeRide, Uber and fleet partner AVOMO received Spain’s first national operating permit for Level 4 autonomous passenger vehicles as they prepare a robotaxi service in Madrid. It would be WeRide’s first European deployment with Uber. WeRide reported about 3,400 Level 4 autonomous vehicles worldwide as of July 31, including more than 1,800 robotaxis. 

Pony.ai has an expanded agreement with Uber to deploy more than 2,000 robotaxis across five European cities. This month, Pony.ai and Verne began fully driverless test rides with passengers on public roads in Zagreb, Croatia. Pony.ai’s fleet reached 1,975 robotaxis in the second quarter, and it is targeting more than 3,500 by year-end.

Lucid And Rivian Land Big Robotaxi Orders

Lucid’s robotaxi ambitions gained a second major customer last week. European mobility platform Bolt said it aims to deploy at least 25,000 autonomous vehicles built on Lucid’s upcoming Midsize platform. The vehicles will use Nvidia’s (NVDA) Hyperion architecture, while Bolt would own and operate the fleet.

That deal adds to Lucid’s U.S. partnership with Uber and autonomous driving developer Nuro. Uber has committed to at least 35,000 Lucid robotaxis, including Gravity SUVs and future Midsize vehicles.

Rivian has its own agreement with Uber. Uber or its fleet partners plan to buy 10,000 fully autonomous R2 SUVs for service beginning in 2028, with an option for 40,000 more. Uber also plans to invest up to $1.25 billion in Rivian through 2031, subject to autonomy milestones.

Tesla, Waymo And Uber Raise The Stakes 

The competition Calacanis is referencing is spreading beyond his four picks. Tesla (TSLA) has begun deploying a small number of Cybercabs in Austin, while Alphabet’s Waymo continues to expand its driverless ride service. Baidu (BIDU) said last week that its Apollo Go vehicles were conducting fully driverless tests on Hong Kong roads, with commercial operations a future goal.

Tesla’s Cybercab also faces a regulatory test: U.S. safety officials have given the company until Sept. 30 to explain how the vehicle, which lacks a steering wheel, pedals and mirrors, complies with federal standards without an exemption.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About Auto Stocks?

On Stocktwits, WRD drew ‘bullish’ sentiment amid ‘high’ message volume, while PONY was ‘neutral’ despite ‘high’ chatter. LCID also sat at ‘neutral,’ with ‘normal’ message volume. RIVN had the worst retail mood: ‘bearish’ sentiment amid ‘high’ activity. 

All four of Calacanis’ picks are down so far this year: RIVN is down 23%, WRD 32%, PONY 50%, and LCID 59%. 

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