Investors will monitor the first Q4 U.S. economic growth report, covering a period that included the longest federal government shutdown on record.
- Markets focused on tariff risk, with JPMorgan flagging a wide range of possible S&P 500 moves depending on the Supreme Court’s decision.
- Veteran NYSE floor trader Peter Tuchman said on X that the S&P 500 has shed roughly $800 billion in market value over the past week.
- Asian markets were broadly lower, with declines in Japan and Australia.
U.S. stock futures rose late on Thursday ahead of a data-heavy Friday, with investors focused on a possible Supreme Court decision on U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs alongside key GDP and inflation data.
As of 8.45 p.m. ET, Nasdaq 100 futures were up 0.3%, while S&P 500 futures were up by 0.2%. Dow futures were up 0.1%.
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment toward the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was ‘neutral’ amid ‘normal’ message volume, while sentiment toward the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) and SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) was ‘bearish’ amid ‘normal’ message volume.
US Market Drivers
In the prior session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5%, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.3%.
Markets were anchored to Friday’s session as traders awaited a potential U.S. Supreme Court ruling on the legality of Trump’s tariffs.
JPMorgan assigns a 64% probability to tariffs being struck down and quickly replaced, a scenario it expects would leave the S&P 500 up about 0.1% to 0.2% after an initial 0.75% to 1% rally. The bank puts the probability of tariffs being upheld at 26%, which it sees pulling the S&P 500 down roughly 0.3% to 0.5%, with larger moves in the yield curve, according to a CNBC report.
Less likely outcomes include a delayed replacement, with a 9% probability according to JPMorgan, which may lift the S&P 500 by 1.25% to 1.5%, or no replacement at all, and a 1% scenario that could push gains to 1.5% to 2%, with the Russell 2000 outperforming.
Traders are also bracing for the fourth-quarter U.S. GDP report due Friday, covering a period that included the longest federal government shutdown on record. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expect GDP to grow at a 2.5% annualized pace, slowing from 4.4% in the third quarter, while core PCE inflation is seen at 3% year over year.
Geopolitical risk also weighed on sentiment after Trump said a decision on potential military action involving Iran could come within 10 days, lifting West Texas Intermediate crude above $66 a barrel, the highest level since August.
On the corporate front, Shares of Blue Owl Capital fell about 6% on Thursday after the firm said it would restrict withdrawals from a private credit fund, dragging peers Blackstone and Apollo Global Management lower by more than 5%. Software stocks remained under pressure, with Salesforce, Intuit, and Cadence Design Systems all posting losses.
Investor appetite was also dented after Walmart shares fell more than 1% on a cautious full-year outlook, despite better-than-expected quarterly results.
Veteran NYSE floor trader Peter Tuchman said on X that the S&P 500 has shed roughly $800 billion in market value over the past week. Separately, the Kobeissi Letter flagged on X a "rare shift in price action," with elevated levels of both overbought and oversold stocks.
Trending Stocks To Watch On NYSE, Nasdaq
GRAIL (GRAL): Shares slumped nearly 50% after-hours as the company said its Galleri multi-cancer screening trial in England’s NHS failed to meet its primary endpoint on reducing late-stage cancer diagnoses.
Transocean (RIG): Shares fell more than 3% in extended trading after the company posted weaker-than-expected Q4 earnings and issued mixed revenue guidance despite progress on debt reduction.
Candel Therapeutics (CADL): Shares dropped about 14% after hours after the company announced a $100 million public stock offering, overshadowing a separate $100 million royalty funding deal.
Celsius Holdings (CELH): Shares jumped 9% in extended trading after upbeat comments at the CAGNY conference highlighted expanding shelf space and rising demand for energy drinks.
Ardelyx (ARDX): Shares slid about 8% in after-hours trading after the company reported no earnings for the quarter despite stronger-than-expected revenue driven by Ibsrela sales.
How Global Markets Are Performing Today
In broader markets, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was around 4.07%. Gold steadied near $5,000 an ounce after two days of gains, supported by geopolitical risk and uncertainty around the path of U.S. interest rates.
Asian markets were broadly lower, with declines in Japan and Australia. TSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.2% amid weaker risk appetite across the region as markets in mainland China remained closed for holidays and Hong Kong reopened after the Lunar New Year break.
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