CLF stock recorded its worst day since October on Monday, but Citi raised its price target.
- The company said that last year it was exposed to significant steel imports, which poisoned its domestic market, creating a demand gap that negatively impacted its steel shipments and asset utilization.
- Investors were expecting an overall improvement in EBITDA per ton, given spot steel prices, the expired slab contract, and lower met coal, Citi said.
- Analysts, on average, had a ‘Buy’ rating on Cleveland-Cliffs, according to Koyfin, with three rating it ‘Buy’ or higher.
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. stock tumbled more than 16% on Monday, marking its worst session in over three months, following disappointing earnings that sapped investor sentiment. However, during the earnings call, management tried to ease some concerns and noted that the problems from last year “have either been resolved or are clearly improving.”
“Our order book is solid, demand is improving, lead times are going out, prices are rising, costs are still coming down, tariffs are in place, the slab contract is gone, manufacturing is coming back,” CFO Celso Goncalves said.
The company said that last year it was exposed to significant steel imports, which poisoned its domestic market, creating a demand gap that negatively impacted its steel shipments and asset utilization. In response to these challenging conditions, the company shut down assets that were weighing on it and terminated the index-based slab supply contract with ArcelorMittal.
Shares of Cleveland-Cliffs gained more than 41% in 2025 but have traded 7% lower so far this year.
Wall Street’s View On CLF
Citi raised the firm's price target on Cleveland-Cliffs to $13 from $11 and maintained a ‘Neutral’ rating, according to TheFly. The price target implies a nearly 6% upside to the last closing price of $12.51.
The firm said the stock took a battering due to first-quarter guidance implying about $140 million in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), which is well below the Bloomberg consensus of $321 million.
Investors were expecting overall better EBITDA per ton improvement given spot steel prices, the expired slab contract, and lower met coal, said Citi, adding that the firm stays on the sidelines, seeing the company benefiting from higher U.S. and Canadian steel prices but still struggling to match minimills on EBITDA per ton and free cash flow.
Analysts on average were having a ‘Buy’ rating on Cleveland-Cliffs, according to Koyfin, with three rating it ‘Buy’ or higher, eight analysts having a ‘Hold’ rating, and one rating ‘Strong sell.’ The average price target on the stock was $13.49, implying an upside of 10% to Monday’s close.
What Is Retail Thinking?
Retail sentiment on Cleveland-Cliffs was in the ‘extremely bullish’ territory, compared to ‘bearish’ a day ago, with message volumes at ‘extremely high’ levels, according to data from Stocktwits.
A user on Stocktwits said that nothing would materialize “until more sales are made.”
In the last 24 hours, retail message volume on Stocktwits jumped 15,900%, and over the past year, the ticker saw a more than 7% spike in followers on the platform.
Another bullish user noted that they were buying the current dip.
Shares of Cleveland-Cliffs have gained nearly 23% in the last 12 months.
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