Carnival Signals Caution Over Macro Uncertainty But Raises Annual Profit Forecast; Retail Mood Glows

Shares of Carnival Corp (CCL) fell 1.2% on Friday, after the cruise line operator struck a cautious tone for the business this year partly due to potential disruption from President Donald Trump's trade tariffs.

The reaction came despite strong first-quarter results and a raise in the company's forecast for full-year earnings, which also powered a positive outlook on the company's shares among retail investors on Stocktwits.

CEO Josh Weinstein said Carnival was "not completely immune from the heightened macroeconomic and geopolitical volatility."

In recent months, Trump has raised tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada and imports of steel and aluminum, opening the United States up to reciprocal tariffs. These tariffs could disrupt trade and lead to higher prices for U.S. consumers.

Carnival now expects adjusted earnings of about $1.83 per share for FY25, up from its previous projection of about $1.70.

"This raise incorporates our increased first-quarter yield results and reduced interest expense thanks to our recent successful refinancings," Weinstein said.

The company meanwhile delivered strong results for its first quarter, which ended in February, thanks to robust demand and higher onboard spending by customers.

Revenue rose to $5.81 billion from $5.41 billion, topping a consensus estimate of $5.75 billion from LSEG/Reuters.

Carnival's adjusted earnings per share was $0.13 compared with an estimate of $0.02.

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment notched higher in the ‘bullish’ territory.

CCL sentiment and message volume as of March 21, 2025 | Source: Stocktwits

A user posted that they expect Carnival shares to go above $30, while another said the stock was "way" oversold.

Shares of the company closed Friday at $20.94, down about 16% year to date.

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