AZO Stock In Focus: Analysts Cut Targets After Q4 Results, Debate Pace Of FY27 Recovery

The latest analyst updates highlight a wide range of expectations for AutoZone’s earnings trajectory, with estimates reflecting differing views on demand, inflation and operating leverage.

• Raymond James sees a more constructive FY27 setup as AutoZone’s sales accelerate into Q1.
• Mizuho questions the basis for the improvement, citing persistent 4%-5% same-SKU inflation.
• Guggenheim says domestic comparable sales likely bottomed in Q4 after sequential acceleration in August.

AutoZone (AZO) stock was in focus Wednesday after multiple analysts lowered their price targets following the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter results, with some pointing to improving sales trends while others remained cautious about the outlook.

AZO shares were trading in the green in premarket trading as of Wednesday morning.

Raymond James analyst Bobby Griffin lowered the firm’s price target to $3,700 from $4,000 while maintaining a ‘Strong Buy' rating, according to The Fly. Despite a larger-than-expected domestic comparable-sales miss, Griffin said accelerating sales into the first quarter (Q1) supports a more constructive fiscal 2027 setup. 

He also pointed to 4% like-for-like inflation, Commercial share gains, and a maturing supply chain and technology investment cycle as potential catalysts.

Guggenheim analyst Steven Forbes lowered his target to $3,750 from $4,000 while keeping a ‘Buy’ rating. According to The Fly, Forbes called AutoZone’s fourth quarter (Q4) operating results “slightly disappointing” but said sequential acceleration in both sales channels in August, combined with management’s FY27 guidance commentary, led the firm to believe domestic comparable sales likely bottomed out during Q4.

Analysts Split On AutoZone’s FY27 Outlook

Mizuho lowered its price target to $3,000 from $3,200 and maintained a ‘Neutral’ rating. According to The Fly, the firm said it was “tough to justify” AutoZone’s post-earnings share-price rally and questioned why conditions would improve, given the company’s FY27 outlook and same-SKU inflation remaining in the 4%-5% range.

BMO Capital cut its target to $3,500 from $4,000 while maintaining an ‘Outperform’ rating. The analyst said AutoZone’s stock rose after the earnings report as management highlighted an improved same-store sales exit rate, despite quarterly comparable sales being pressured by DIY demand, The Fly reported.

Barclays also cut its target to $3,400 from $3,637, while maintaining an ‘Overweight’ rating. The firm came away from the earnings call “slightly more positive” after AutoZone confirmed a modest improvement as it exited the quarter, The Fly reported.

According to Koyfin data, 18 of 27 analysts rate AZO stock “Buy,” five rate it “Strong Buy,” and four rate it “Hold.”

AutoZone Q4 Results Highlights

AutoZone reported Q4 net sales of $6.59 billion, up 5.6% year-over-year, while diluted earnings per share (EPS) rose to $56.05 from $48.71 a year earlier. Total-company same-store sales increased 2.7%, while domestic same-store sales rose 1.6%. On a constant-currency basis, total-company same-store sales increased 1.5%.

The company said sales strengthened during the final eight weeks of the quarter after a difficult selling environment during the first eight weeks. AutoZone opened 175 stores during Q4, including 97 in the U.S., 68 in Mexico and 10 in Brazil. The additions included 16 new U.S. Mega Hub stores, bringing fiscal 2026 store openings to 374.

AutoZone also repurchased $697.5 million of stock during Q4 and ended the fiscal year with $1.6 billion remaining under its current share repurchase authorization.

Retail View On AZO

Retail sentiment on Stocktwits stayed 'extremely bullish' on AZO over the past 24 hours, with message volume running 'high.'

AZO shares have dropped nearly 17% year-to-date.

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