Tim Farrar said reaching 60 satellites could take until 2028, based on an assumed eight remaining New Glenn launches and two Falcon 9 missions.
- Farrar questioned AST’s midband deployment plans and why its latest satellite shipment update lacked a confirmed launch date.
- AST targets about 45 BlueBird satellites in early 2027 and says 45-60 could enable continuous service in key markets.
- Farrar challenged expectations for a deal with the AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile satellite venture.
Shares of AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) are heading for their worst year since listing, while Silicon Valley-based satcom and wireless spectrum consultant Tim Farrar says reaching 60 satellites could take until 2028.
ASTS stock fell 10.46% on Wednesday to $42.14 after hitting a 52-week low of $42. It has lost about 42% this year, exceeding its 41.5% decline in 2021, previously its worst annual performance since it began trading the same year in April.
Farrar Questions AST’s Launch And Spectrum Plans
Farrar’s estimate is based on an assumed eight remaining New Glenn launches and two Falcon 9 missions. “If it truly is 8 NG and 2 F9 left then that would be enough to get to 60 satellites (sometime in 2028 as I've been saying for months). But that's just a low band system with a tiny amount of spectrum. What do they plan to use for midband launches?” he said on X.
AST targets about 45 BlueBird satellites in early 2027, subject to launch availability. The company says operating 45-60 satellites would enable continuous service in key markets including the U.S., Europe and Japan.
Meanwhile, AST’s recent filings also outline plans for additional spectrum: its Ligado deal would provide access to up to 45 MHz of lower-midband satellite frequencies in the U.S. and Canada, subject to regulatory approval and other closing conditions. The company also holds international priority rights covering 60 MHz of S-band spectrum.
Farrar also questioned AST’s shipment update for BlueBirds 14, 15 and 16. The company said they had arrived in Cape Canaveral, but no firm launch date had been announced.
“So why not show that in Friday's release (& confirm a launch date!), rather than a week-old video of them going elsewhere?” he said, questioning whether the update showed delivery to Cape Canaveral Space Force Station for processing.
Farrar Questions Hopes For Carrier Venture Deal
Beyond deployment, Farrar challenged expectations for a deal with the satellite venture formed by AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile. The carriers said earlier this month that the venture would pool limited spectrum resources to expand satellite connectivity, while preserving their existing satellite agreements.
“The #cluelesscult have put a lot of faith in the prospect of a deal with the MNO JV (and TMUS in particular),” he said. “So what happens if the JV announces a deal to work with someone else (e.g. Amazon)?”
Farrar also clarified the distinction between the venture and individual carrier partnerships. “The JV hasn't announced any deals with anyone so far. And they said it wouldn't affect prior deals struck by the individual partners. So no one is being ‘left’ or ‘replaced’,” he said.
Wall Street Splits Over AST’s Launch Risks
AST listed 13 spacecraft in orbit in August and has since said manufacturing is underway through BlueBird 50. It previously targeted 45-60 satellite launches during 2025-2026. Its second-quarter filing outlined initial, noncontinuous service with 25 BlueBirds and continuous coverage across all targeted markets with about 90.
Recently, Clear Street said that New Glenn could carry eight BlueBirds per flight, versus three on Falcon 9. Jeff Bezos expects New Glenn to return in December after a May launch-pad explosion. An April mission placed AST’s BlueBird 7 into an unsustainable orbit, leading to its re-entry.
On the other hand, Piper Sandler cited lower confidence in AST’s 2026-2027 launch pace. Following SpaceX’s $8 billion spectrum deal, it warned that the company could theoretically restrict launch access for customers such as AST if it sought to disadvantage mobile operators.
How Do Retail Traders Feel About ASTS?
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for ASTS has been ‘bullish’ from a week amid ‘extremely high’ message volume.
One user said, “$ASTS massive overeaction. Let’s see this bad boy hit $130EOY and make the haters lose money”
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Another bullish user said, “$ASTS So dramatically oversold. That's Okay. There is no doubt, the Street thinks Space X / Starlink is competition. Boy, they're about to get a wake up call.”
View this Stocktwits post
ASTS stock has declined 42% year-to-date.
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