The thesis has broader implications for Falcon 9 users such as ASTS, PL and LUNR, all of which rely heavily on SpaceX launches.
- Investor Rob Maurer said that Starship could cut bandwidth deployment costs to $0.30 per Mbps, down 95% from Falcon 9 levels.
- ARK Invest and Mach33 see SpaceX hitting a $2.5 trillion valuation by 2030.
- Maurer estimates that Starship's lower launch costs and more capable satellites could drive a 20x improvement in deployment efficiency.
Shares of AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), Intuitive Machines (LUNR), and Planet Labs (PL) rose in overnight trading after Elon Musk endorsed an analysis suggesting that Starship could dramatically lower the cost of deploying satellites and broadband infrastructure.
ASTS rose 1%, LUNR gained 2% and PL inched 0.2% higher in overnight trading.
Starlink's Biggest Cost Could Collapse
Rob Maurer, managing partner at First Principles Group, said on X that investors are overlooking SpaceX's most important metric: the cost of putting bandwidth into orbit. "The metric I keep coming back to for SpaceX is $/Mbps to orbit." Maurer said.
According to Maurer, Falcon 9 reduced bandwidth deployment costs 10x to $6.55 per Mbps, helping make Starlink viable. Starship could push that figure down to just $0.30 per Mbps. "A business that is doubling users annually with a 63% adjusted EBITDA margin is about to cut their biggest cost by 95%," Maurer said. "It really seems like people don't understand the implications of this." Musk endorsed the analysis, calling it "Interesting."
Maurer's calculations assume that a reusable Falcon 9 launch carries 17 tonnes at around $1,000 per kilogram, while Starship targets 100 tonnes at less than $185 per kilogram. The result: $17 million spent deploying 2,600 Gbps of bandwidth via Falcon 9 versus $18.5 million deploying 61,000 Gbps via Starship.
The gains aren't just about launch costs. Maurer also estimates that future Starlink V3 satellites could deliver 4x more bandwidth per kilogram than current V2 Mini satellites. Combined with Starship's launch economics, that could drive a 20x improvement in deployment efficiency. "Yeah, I really don't think people are getting this. Starlink is the internet now," Maurer said.
Why ASTS, LUNR And PL Are In Focus
The thesis extends beyond SpaceX since several space companies already depend heavily on Falcon 9. AST SpaceMobile has used Falcon 9 to deploy its BlueBird direct-to-cell satellites and is scheduled to launch another batch of satellites later this month. Meanwhile, Planet Labs operates under a multi-year rideshare agreement with SpaceX and has launched hundreds of SuperDove satellites aboard Falcon 9 missions. Intuitive Machines has relied on Falcon 9 for its IM-1 and IM-2 lunar missions and plans to use the rocket for future Moon missions as well.
If Starship delivers on its promise of dramatically lower launch and deployment costs, companies building satellite constellations, Earth-observation networks and lunar infrastructure could eventually benefit from cheaper access to orbit and faster deployment cycles.
Starlink Emerges As SpaceX's Cash Cow
The timing is notable as investors increasingly focus on Starlink ahead of SpaceX's blockbuster IPO. Starlink reportedly generated $11.4 billion in revenue last year and accounted for 61% of SpaceX's total sales. The satellite internet business produced $7.2 billion in adjusted EBITDA, translating into a 63% margin and making it SpaceX's primary cash cow.
ARK Invest and Mach33 expect SpaceX to hit an enterprise value of $2.5 trillion by 2030, with a bull-case valuation of $3.1 trillion. The firms said that Starlink could eventually generate $300 billion in annual revenue and capture 15% of global communications spending.
How Do Retail Traders Feel About Space Stocks?
On Stocktwits, sentiment around SpaceX and Planet Labs remained 'extremely bullish' amid 'extremely high' message volume, while AST SpaceMobile and Intuitive Machines drew more cautious sentiment, with both stocks rated 'bearish' on 'low' message volume.
Over the past year, PL has surged 450%, while ASTS has gained 145% and LUNR has advanced 137%.
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