Anthropic’s Q3 revenue rose 45% sequentially, compared to 147% growth in the preceding quarter, according to Anthropic’s financial disclosure to some investors.

  • Some investors are reassessing Anthropic’s IPO valuation, previously pegged at around $2 trillion.
  • Investor Gavin Baker remains bullish on Anthropic, citing positive free cash flow, accelerating October growth and better-than-expected unit economics.
  • Anthropic’s IPO could serve as a key test of investor appetite for AI companies.

Anthropic’s IPO valuation expectations are cooling, with some existing and prospective investors considering a valuation of around $1.5 trillion, down from the roughly $2 trillion previously anticipated, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing four people familiar with the matter.

The reassessment follows the AI company’s latest third-quarter financial disclosures, which showed slowing sequential revenue growth. 

At an investor meeting at its San Francisco headquarters on Wednesday, the Claude maker reported $16.8 billion in third-quarter revenue, a 45% growth over the $11.6 billion in revenue in the second quarter. Sales grew 147% in Q2 over $4.7 billion in Q1. 

The figures were reported by Bloomberg and other media outlets, and have not been confirmed by Anthropic. Still, the slowing topline growth disappointed some investors, according to the latest Reuters report.  

The valuation discussions come as investors grow increasingly concerned about the mounting costs of building AI infrastructure and the growing reliance on debt to finance the expansion. 

Those fears, as well as a hotter-than-expected inflation reading for the last month, triggered a sharp selloff in AI-linked stocks over the past week with the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) falling for an eighth straight session on Thursday.

Investors Bullish On AI

Some investors, however, continue to be bullish on the broader AI industry.

“We will probably never get another ARR number from Anthropic, which is healthy. Should force the market to move away from extreme focus on Anthropic/OpenAI ARR numbers to hyperscale growth rates, which are a much better metric for AI at this point given they capture Muse, Grok, Gemini and Open-Source,” Atreides Management investor Gavin Baker said in an X post on Thursday.

Baker cited Anthropic’s positive free cash flow and accelerating growth in October as reasons for his optimistic view on Anthropic. He said the company’s unit economics are “much better than expected,” with 75% of compute spending going toward training.

Anthropic IPO Seen As AI Litmus Test

Anthropic’s listing is emerging as a key test for investor appetite for AI companies, with the outcome potentially influencing sentiment ahead of a possible OpenAI IPO next year.

The IPO market has also faced setbacks, with data center operator SB Energy delaying its listing last month and nuclear technology company Holtec Nuclear withdrawing its plans to go public. Smart-ring maker Oura also deferred its IPO citing volatile market conditions. 

Anthropic’s IPO would also be a major liquidation event for its backers, which include some of the top public tech companies such Amazon.com (AMZN), Alphabet, Inc. (GOOGL), and Nvidia Corp. (NVDA).

Earlier this month, confusion over OpenAI’s revenue figures rattled semiconductor stocks and the broader Nasdaq. Media reports initially pegged the AI startup’s annualized revenue at $70 billion, but the Financial Times later reported the figure was closer to $50 billion.

 

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