Shares of Marathon Petroleum have surged more than 200% in 2026, overtaking top chip companies including Nvidia, AMD, and Intel, among others.

  • MPC stock’s strong performance has also put it ahead of major energy and technology ETFs in 2026.
  • Surging oil prices have undoubtedly contributed to the energy company’s strong performance, driving higher crack spreads across regions and increased rates and throughput in its Midstream business. 
  • Raymond James raised its price target on Marathon Petroleum to $560 from $445 and maintained an ‘Outperform’ rating. 

Energy stocks have rallied sharply in 2026 since the U.S.-Iran war began in February, which led to a sharp uptick in oil prices. 

Marathon Petroleum Corp. (MPC) has had a particularly strong run this year, surging past even top technology and chip companies. 

The refiner’s stock has surged more than 200% since the start of the year, outperforming Nvidia Corp. (NVDA), Intel Corp. (INTC), Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD), Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM), and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO). Micron, however, has outpaced all of them with a 217% surge.

MPC’s Quarterly Performance Has Bolstered The Stock Higher

Surging oil prices have undoubtedly contributed to the energy company’s strong performance, driving higher crack spreads across all regions and increasing rates and throughput in its Midstream business. 

The company’s strong earnings have provided an additional lift. In its second-quarter (Q2) print, MPC posted revenues of $52.33 billion, up more than 53% and well above analyst expectations of $41.44 billion. 

Earnings per share came in at $17.73 for the second quarter of 2026, up from $3.96 per share in the second quarter of 2025.

The company also posted a significant increase in its refining and marketing margins, which came in at $36.33 per barrel for Q2, versus $17.58 per barrel in the previous comparable quarter. 

MPC also completed two high-return, yield-enhancing refining investments in the quarter: El Paso refinery in Texas and Robinson refinery in Illinois. 

The company said the El Paso yield-improvement investment enhances the refinery's ability to produce specialty gasolines for the El Paso, Phoenix, and Mexico markets, reinforcing “its geographic advantage and competitive position.” Meanwhile, the Robinson investment enables about 10,000 barrels per day (mbpd) of incremental jet fuel production, supporting growing regional demand. 

MPC will report its third quarter (Q3) earnings on Nov. 3. The company expects total refinery throughputs of 3,005 mbpd, of which 2,820 mbpd will consist of crude oil refined and 185 mbpd of other charge and blendstocks. 

Wall Street Sees Further Upside

MPC’s strong performance has put it ahead of major energy and technology ETFs in 2026, including the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), and the Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF (AIQ). 

The stock also notched a fresh 52-week high of $493.98 on Monday. 

Despite the uptick, Raymond James sees further upside, according to The Fly. The analyst raised the price target on Marathon Petroleum to $560 from $445 and maintained an ‘Outperform’ rating, implying nearly 16% upside from its last close. 

Meanwhile, Koyfin data shows the 12-month average price target on MPC stock is $442.33, implying a downside of more than 6% from its last close. 

Of the 19 analysts covering the stock, nine rate it ‘Buy’ or higher, while another nine rate it ‘Hold’. Only one analyst has a ‘Sell’ rating on the stock. 

MPC Stock: Retail Stance

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around MPC stock slipped from ‘bullish’ to ‘neutral’ over 24 hours, even as message volumes surged about 700% in the same time. 

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